Flash Flooding and Flood in Kentucky, September 26 to 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
230 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AS
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE MOVES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

THE 12Z FORECAST MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE OF
THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE ETA HAS
FINALLY COME IN LINE WITH THE AVN AND ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT
THEY ARE MUCH CLOSER THAN WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 12Z FRIDAY AVN
POSITION OF THE LOW IS OVER HOP WITH THE ETA ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH
OF THAT POSITION. AFTER 12Z FRIDAY BOTH MODELS TRACK THE LOW RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER MOST OF THE CFA TODAY WITH
THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. WE EXPECT THE RAIN
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CFA TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
EVENING BUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WHERE A GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ZONE DEVELOPS. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE WE EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY SATURDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CHANCE MUCH OVERNIGHT AND WILL MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO FORECASTED LOWS.

.SDF...FLOOD WATCH THRU FRI FOR ALL OF THE COUNTY FORECAST AREA.

JA

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-270830-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
620 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH ROBUST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
SIGNIFICANT POOLING OF MOISTURE, BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AS THE CIRCULATION IS PICKED UP BY AN
EASTWARD MOVING UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, THE PRECIPITATION WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, WITH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

.HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH FRIDAY, FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA, UNDER AWIPS PIL: SDFFLSSDF OR
WMO HEADER: RWUS43 KSDF. PLEASE CONSULT THIS PRODUCT FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ON THE FLOODING THREAT.

.STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
A PLUME OF HIGH WINDS ABOUT FIVE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE GROUND, ON
THE EAST SIDE OF ISIDORE, WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALLOWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. COUPLED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND VERY
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS FOR THESE STORMS WOULD BE AREAS OF
KENTUCKY EAST OF I-65, INCLUDING LEXINGTON, FRANKFORT, RICHMOND,
CAMPBELLSVILLE, AND COLUMBIA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS
WOULD BE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS, DEADLY LIGHTNING, AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

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