Strong Wind in Georgia, September 26 to 27, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
330 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

THINGS ARE BEGINNING TO PROGRESS NICELY. CURRENTLY MOST OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA IS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 7 PM BUT NOTHING SEVERE HAS
BEGUN AS OF YET. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP LARGE
MOISTURE PLUME (EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA UP THROUGH THE
GULF AND OVER WESTERN GA) IS BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO MOST
OF THE STATE. THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE WAVE ALONG THIS PLUME
(CURRENTLY JUST OVER THE TLH AREA) MOVING NORTH AND SHOULD BE INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CIRCULATION FROM
THE REMNANTS OF ISIDORE IS OVER CENTRAL MS JUST EAST OF JACKSON. THE
HPC FORECAST TRACK OF ISIDORE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH AVN MODEL.
THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AND SHOULD BE
INTO THE TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRI AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY 18Z FRI.
REMAINS ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AFTER THAT ACCORDING TO THE
AVN. LOOKS LIKE THE AVN IS STILL THE CONSENSUS MODEL OF CHOICE...PER
HPC...AND ALSO AGREES WITH UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS. AS REMAINS OF
ISIDORE TRACK N AND NE OF CWA PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD GET INTO SOME NICE
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED: SATURDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES TO PRESENT EXTENDED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ISIDORE IMPACT ON CWA DUE TO
CONSISTENT AVN MODEL AND HPC RUNS PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AFTER FRIDAY.

FCSTID = 01

ATL  70 68 80 66 /  90 80 60 30
AHN  70 67 81 67 /  90 80 60 30
GVL  67 66 79 65 /  90 80 70 30
RMG  74 68 81 64 /  99 90 80 30
CSG  76 72 86 70 /  80 70 50 30
MCN  74 70 86 70 /  80 60 50 30

.ATL...
GA...NONE.

GAZ038-039-048>054-056>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-261930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
235 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH 7 PM. THIS WATCH IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
FRANKLIN...TO COVINGTON...TO LEXINGTON.

ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER WAS OCCURRING AT 230 PM...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH 4 PM ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. WHILE
MOST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50 MPH. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA.

PEOPLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SHELTER
IF THE WEATHER LOOKS THREATENING.