Drought in Georgia, May 1 to 31, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
945 PM EDT TUE APR 30 2002

CONVECTION THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS FIZZLED
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY NOW FIRING S AND W OF THE CWA. ATMOSPHERE
IS CAPPED OVER THE CWA AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BORDERLINE.
HELICITY VALUES ARE IN THE 200 TO 300 RANGE WITH E TO SE WINDS AT
THE SFC AND STRONG WRLY WIND AT H7. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NEED THE WARM
FRONT TO MOVE N INTO OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO THE CWA IN ORDER FOR
CONVECTION TO INITIATE. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LINGERING JUST S OF CWA
AND GETTING A LITTLE DIFFUSE DUE TO PREVIOUS CONVECTION. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE OVERRUNNING AREAS NOT OUT OF THE QUES ALSO LATER
TONIGHT AS BETTER LIFT MAKES ITS WAY NE. TEMPS CURRENTLY RIGHT
AROUND FCST LOWS BUT SHOULD NOT FALL MUCH MORE BEFORE THEY ACTUALLY
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. CURRENT FCST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ANY UPDATES UNTIL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO. FOR NOW LIKELY POPS STILL POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

MARINE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SE OVER THE WATERS AND HAVE DROPPED
OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2 TO 4 FT. EXPECT
WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE S LATER TONIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF
THE WATERS AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. WILL MAKE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO INITIAL CONDITIONS BASED ON LATEST OBS BUT KEEP
CURRENT TREND IN PLACE.

CHS   66  89  70  94 /  60  30   0   0
SAV   68  91  68  94 /  60  20   0   0    RECORDS    CHS      SAV
CHL   66  87  73  92 /  60  30   0   0      WED    93/1996  94/1990
NBC   68  91  70  94 /  60  30   0   0      THU    95/1990  96/1990
RBW   66  90  67  95 /  60  30   0   0

.CHS...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

SLF