Flooding in Florida, November 16, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN
1045 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

UPDATED ZONES AND COASTAL FORECAST TO REFLECT TORNADO WATCH. ALSO
INTRODUCED FLOODING INTO THE ZONES.

.TBW...TORNADO WATCH SARASOTA...DESOTO...HIGHLANDS...CHARLOTTE...AND
       LEE COUNTIES UNTIL 4 PM.
    ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA BCH TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NM
       INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.

ALSHEIMER

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-161600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
605 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...SCATTERED LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
...HIGH WINDS AND SEAS DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...

...RAINFALL...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE SUNCOAST BY LATE MORNING.
OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.

CURRENT DATA SUGGEST STORM TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES...LOCALLY 8 INCHES OR MORE...FROM SARASOTA COUNTY SOUTH BY
EARLY SUNDAY.  ELSEWHERE NEAR THE COAST...2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY 6 INCHES OR MORE.  SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS OF THE SUNCOAST...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING TODAY.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS
OR URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES...LATER TODAY.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE WINDS.  SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.  A SQUALL LINE MAY PRECEDE THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT AS WELL.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.

RESIDENTS...EMERGENCY SERVICES PERSONNEL...THE MEDIA...AND OTHER
INTERESTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS STORMS
TODAY.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER SOURCES FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...MARINE HAZARDS...
MARINERS...PARTICULARLY SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS...MAY WANT TO CANCEL
WEEKEND TRIPS INTO THE GULF.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DANGER.

BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE
RISING SEAS AND ROUGH SURF.  SEAS WILL RISE AS HIGH AS 10 FEET NEAR
SHORE...AND UP TO 14 FEET BEYOND 60 NM...BY LATE TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

...COLD WEATHER ON THE WAY SUNDAY NIGHT...

TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ALONG THE NATURE
COAST SUNDAY...AND REMAIN BETWEEN 60 AND 65 ELSEWHERE.  BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET.  READINGS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S NORTH OF TAMPA BAY TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE.  VALUES WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

WIND CHILL VALUES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH.

A MODERATING TREND WILL BEGIN LATER MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG

FLZ065-161500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
914 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2002

...URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LEE COUNTY EXPIRED...
AS OF 915 AM... THE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LEE COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED. THE MAIN RAIN BAND THAT PROMPTED THE ADVISORY HAS MOVED
NORTH INTO CHARLOTTE COUNTY... HOWEVER A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT FORT MYERS...TICE...SUNCOAST ESTATES AND NORTH
FORT MYERS DURING THE NEXT HOUR. RAINFALL RATES OF ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR MAY OCCUR. MOTORISTS CAN EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY.