Dense Fog in Florida, March 8, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL...UPDATED...
455 AM EST FRI MAR 8 2002

AFTER REVIEW OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS HAVE DECIDED
TO ISSUE A (NPW) DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH. REST OF
DISCUSSION BELOW UNCHANGED.

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CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS NEARING ZERO
IS ALREADY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH
RECEIVED RAINFALL YESTERDAY. WILL MONITOR OBS A WHILE LONGER...AND IF
NEEDED WITH ADD MENTION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY FOG IN 5 AM
ZONE PACKAGE.

SHORT TERM...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TODAY...THEN NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY...AND INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
DOWN STREAM UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SERN STATES AND FL. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING ALONG WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE FA...MODELS
DEPICT AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COLLISION WITH POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS
BOTH AFTERNOONS...ACROSS MY WEST CENTRAL AND SWRN MOST ZONES TODAY...
THEN INTERIOR AND SWRN ZONES ON SATURDAY. SEEING THAT THE AIR MASS
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE AND GIVEN THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE...WILL OPT
TO ADVERTISE ONLY A LOW POP (20%) FOR MY SWRN MOST ZONES (SARASOTA
SOUTH) BOTH DAYS WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...OTHER-
WISE NIL POPS ELSEWHERE. BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND MORE SUNSHINE WILL
LEAD TO WARM TEMPS WITH READINGS NEAR 80 NORTH...TO THE LOWER 80S
CENTRAL AND SOUTH. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG COASTAL ZONES WHERE SEA
BREEZE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP TEMPS A BIT COOLER. MAV/FWC/FAN CLOSE SO A
BLEND WILL BE USED.

BY EARLY SUNDAY WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW MOVING INTO CANADA
WILL BE SAGGING INTO THE FA. WITH MAIN UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT
PASSING BY WELL TO THE NE AND NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE AT BEST ALONG
AND AHEAD OF IT...ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS IF THAT WITH THE FROPA
SO WILL KEEP 20% POPS IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING.

EXTENDED...(MON-THURS)...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ON MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTH TX. LATEST AVN RUN DEPICTS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE TX COAST ON TUESDAY WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF
MOISTURE/PRECIP SPREADING EAST OVER THE GULF. CURRENT EXTENDED HAS
POPS FOR TUES/WED...AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE FOR NOW...BUT WILL REVIEW
MRF LATER THIS MORNING TO SEE IF I WILL NEED TO ADJUST THURSDAY AT
ALL...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES PLANNED.

MARINE...CURRENT AND EXPECTED GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN THE 10-
15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH AN
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT EACH AFTERNOON. INCREASING NORTH WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
POSSIBLE HIGHLIGHTS...THEN WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING NE TO EASTERLY AS HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE
AREA.

PRELIMINARY #S
BKV 080/055 081/055 0001
TPA 081/062 081/063 0000
GIF 082/061 082/062 -0-0
SRQ 080/062 081/063 10-0
FMY 082/062 083/064 2010

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL