Extreme Cold in Florida, January 4, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 AM EST FRI JAN 4 2002

HAVE OPTED TO UP THE WINDS ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND GO WITH SCA THERE
AS WELL. PORT MAYACA IS OVER 20 KNOTS NOW. EXPECT THE WINDS TO COME
DOWN TOWARD MORNING BUT WITH THOSE SPEEDS HAVE NO CHOICE.

CLOUDS CONTINUING TO THIN OUT RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTH AS VERY DRY AIR
MOVES SOUTH. DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 20S NORTH OF THE LAKE AND
EVEN PALM BEACH IS IN THE MID 30S. MODELS CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT BY
09Z AT PBI AND BY 12Z AT FLL AND MIA. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. STRONG COLD AIR CONVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AND MODELS NOW INDICATING SOUTH FLORIDA WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 60 THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL LOWER CURRENT
FORECAST MAX TEMPS BY ONE CATEGORY. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN STORE FOR
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME MODIFICATION. MODELS (ESPECIALLY
THE AVN) WANT TO BRING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST TOO FAST.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH STILL CENTERED OVER GEORGIA WITH VERY LITTLE
EXTENSION TO THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC LOOKS AS IF THE WINDS WILL
STILL BE NORTHERLY. EVEN IF THEY COME AROUND TO SLIGHTLY EAST OF
NORTH DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CAUSE ENOUGH OF A FETCH OVER THE WATER
TO MODIFY TEMPS AS FAST AS THE MODELS INDICATE. SO WILL ALSO
UNDERCUT THE MODELS BY AS MUCH AS TWO CATEGORIES FOR TONIGHTS LOWS
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND GO PRETTY MUCH FOR WHAT THEY SHOW OVER THE
INTERIOR ZONES. AFTER THAT THE HIGH RAPIDLY MOVES EAST IN RESPONSE
TO ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA IN THOSE AREAS BUT
LOWER THE WINDS BELOW CRITERIA FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THEN THE WINDS
DRAMATICALLY DROP OFF TONIGHT. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
WINDS TO COME BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FIRE...WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TODAY MAY ACTUALLY
STRUGGLE TO HAVE RH VALUES GO BELOW CRITICAL NUMBERS EVEN WITH THE
LOW DEW POINTS. SO WILL PROBABLY JUST KEEP IT AS A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR NOW RATHER THAN GOING WITH A WARNING. BUT KEEP IN MIND IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS GO AND IF AT LAST MINUTE I SEE
THE DEW POINTS GET LOW ENOUGH MAY MAKE LAST MINUTE DECISION TO GO
WITH THE WARNING.

EXTENDED...LOOKS DOUBTFUL THAT I CAN GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM. THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE CURRENT
SYSTEM DID AND SO THE GREATEST LIFT OCCURS WELL TO THE NORTH OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL GO BACK TO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BUT KEEP
MENTION OF SCATTERED SHRA. ALSO IT DOES NOT GET QUITE AS COLD BUT
STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL AGAIN. THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA ON THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHRA.

PBI UB 059/043 070/059 075 30000-
FLL UB 060/045 071/060 076 30000-
MIA UB 060/046 072/060 077 30000-
APF UB 059/039 072/057 074 300000

.MIA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING ALL ZONES.
       SCA FOR ALL WATERS.
       FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.