Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, June 24, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
305 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2002

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY PART OF FORECAST....

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR AND OBS PLOT SHOWING S/W EXITING NE
COLORADO...USHERING IN NW FLOW BEHIND. CONVECTIVE CIRRUS DEBRIS
FROM NM STORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. LAST VISIBLE
SHOWED SMOKE PLUME FROM AZ FIRES MOVING NE...AND PLUMES FROM MILLION
FIRE AND MISSIONARY RIDGE MOVING WESTWARD.

FOR TODAY...ADDED HAZE WRN MTNS...SAN LUIS VALLEY AND ERN MTNS DUE
TO FIRES/WESTERLY FLOW AND RESIDUAL AZ SMOKE FROM YESTERDAY. MESO ETA
STILL BRINGING THROUGH WIND SHIFT AROUND NOON...CURRENTLY UP IN NW
CO MOVING OUR WAY. NO IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE CHANGES OR TEMP CHANGES
WITH THIS FEATURE. WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE LATE IN DAY THROUGH ABOUT
650 MB. SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO OUR NORTH TODAY...
MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF STATE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
THIS FEATURE TO MOVE ACROSS PIKES PEAK AREA JUST AFTER PEAK
HEATING...ADDED SLIGHT POPS IN EVENING FOR 71/72...WITH CAPES STILL
200-400...LIS -2. MOVED EASTERN PLAINS POPS TO EVENING ONLY FOR LACK
OF DAYTIME FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE.

FOR TUESDAY...UPSLOPE GENERATING SHOWERS ALONG MTNS...CAPES IMPROVE
TO AOA 1000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS. 500 MB
FLOW IS LIGHT W TO NW...SO ANYTHING THAT FORMS SHOULD DRIFT OFF MTNS
INTO PLAINS AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

NEXT FEATURE MOVES INTO NE COLORADO TUESDAY EVENING...AVN PRETTY
CONTAMINATED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK HERE. ETA SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH LEADING EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.  AVN BRINGS
IN BRUNT OF WIND SHIFT AND LEADING EDGE OF HIGH BETWEEN 18 AND 0Z
WED. FOLLOWED ETA MORE HERE AND ADDED POPS PLAINS AND EASTERN MTNS
FOR WED MORNING.

THURS THROUGH SUNDAY...UPSLOPE CONTINUES AND THE UPPER RIDGE MANAGES
TO REMAIN GENERALLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...AS MAIN BELT OF
WESTERLIES REMAINS FROM THE PAC NW INTO CANADA.  SFC HI OVER MN/IA
BORDER THURSDAY SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST...LOOKS LIKE AVN IS TRYING TO
TAP INTO MOISTURE ON SOUTH SIDE...ENHANCING UPSLOPE AND QPF ALONG
MTNS. NO CHANGES FOR NOW.

.PUB...NONE.

KC

COZ058>081-241830-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1045 AM MDT MON JUN 24 2002

...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THROUGH 7 AM TOMORROW...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...

WINDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL BECOME UPSLOPE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDES DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...ALLOWING
FOR LOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRONG DAY
HEATING...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY MOVE OFF
ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.  STORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...THOUGH THEY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
RAIN.

A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE CONTINUES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ELEVATED LAYER OF SMOKE IS FROM THE LARGE
FIRES IN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. ALTHOUGH NOT AS THICK AS
YESTERDAY...IT WILL STILL PRODUCE HAZY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION.