Hail in Colorado, July 29, 2002

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO COLORADO
230 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2002

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE HOW WARM AND HOW DRY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING POP CHANCES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE...KEEPING DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...
WITH ONLY A FEW FLAT CU ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE. AT THE
SURFACE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS KEEPING DEW PTS IN THE MID 40S TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH THE DRY FLOW ALOFT BEING
INDICATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CWA AS DEW PTS AT WOLF CREEK AND
LEADVILLE ARE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ATTM.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS WILL END AFTER SUNSET...AS DRY AND SUBSIDENT FLOW ALOFT TAKES
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS FOR THIS AREA AND THE IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS...AND EVERYONE ELSE DRY.  WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DRYING AIR ALOFT...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST.

TUE THROUGH WED...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE PLAYER...
REMAINING ACROSS THE STATE AND KEEPING DRY AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WED. MODELS KEEP STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ON WED. TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH
DAY...WITH 700MB TEMPS BETWEEN +16C AND +18C BY 00Z THU. WEAK LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS ON THE PLAINS WED WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE TO THE
NORTH...ALLOWING FOR WEAK DOWNSLOPE AND THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE
WEEK. MESO-ETA GRIDS HAVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 100S ACROSS THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY ON WED AND CANT ARGUE WITH THAT.

THU...LATEST AVN CONTINUES THE TREND OF UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SLIDING
SOUTH AND EAST..ALLOWING FOR WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CWA BY THU...AND ALSO CONTINUES THE TREND OF A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE AVN...HOWEVER...SEEMS TO BE
HAVING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AS IT LIFTS A STRONG VORT
MAX ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND MOVES IT ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH THU. WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WILL RE-INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE DIURNAL POPS ACROSS THE CWA.
WILL ALSO LOWER TEMPS A TAD...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE AS SEEMS TO
BE TRENDING TOO MUCH TOWARDS CLIMO.

FOR THE EXTENDED (FRI-MON)...NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE THROUGH SAT AND THEN SLOWLY
MOVES WESTWARD AGAIN SUN AND MON. WEAK SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALOFT
TO KEEP SOME MONSOON MOISTURE IN PLACE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DISTURBANCES ON THE HORIZON...NO ONE DAY LOOKS BETTER FOR PRECIP AND
PLAN TO KEEP PERSISTENT BROADBRUSH OF DIURNAL POPS WITH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS A COLD BIAS IN THE OUT PERIODS.

.PUB...NONE.

MW

COZ058>081-292045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
145 PM MDT MON JUL 29 2002

...THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO THROUGH 7 AM TOMORROW...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONINTUE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW STORMS
MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY
RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND SMALL
HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER. THESE STORMS WILL END SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO.