Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Indiana, July 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1040 AM EST MON JUL 29 2002

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM U.P. OF MICHIGAN SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN ILLINOIS TO OKLAHOMA.  RAIN SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  LOWER
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
INCREASED STEADILY THIS MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE AT A SLOWER RATE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWESTERN ZONES.  WILL
UPDATE ZONES TO INCREASE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO NEAR 90 IN SOUTHERN
ZONES.  REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WERE THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER CAPE VALUES ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE ABOVE 2000
J/KG...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN ZONES WHICH WILL SEE A LONGER PERIOD OF
INSOLATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT IS
STILL NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE BUT UPPER WINDS ARE STILL STRONG.  ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS THE
MAIN THREAT.  UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

.IWX...NONE.

OHARA

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-292200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1104 AM EST MON JUL 29 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...
NORTHWEST OHIO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES THAT
NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND EXTREME SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ARE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A COLD FRONT...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE ADVANCING
FRONT...SETTING OFF THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS TO 60 MPH.
LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 1 PM
EST AND 7 PM EST.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD THIS AFTERNOON...HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO RISE TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IWX

OHARA