Damaging Winds and Lightning Strike in Indiana, July 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 AM EST MON JUL 29 2002

THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
MORNING...AND OVER MOST OF THE  FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP.

A COLD FRONT WAS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO KANSAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO KANSAS ALSO. THUNDERSTORMS WERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH. SKIES WERE STILL MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS AGREE TO MOVING THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. DEW POINTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDEXES
WERE RUNNING -4 TO -6 JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING.
MODELS MAINTAIN MODERATE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALSO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE OVER THE AREA.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
PAST THE AREA AND DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
WILL LIMIT TODAYS TEMPERATURE RISE. MOS NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE. A
BIT COOLER AIR MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT...BUT SUNSHINE WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO HOT ON TUESDAY.

.IND...NONE.
DS

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-292030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1142 AM EST MON JUL 29 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST BEFORE THE STORMS ARRIVE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.