Lightning Strike in Colorado, August 7, 2002

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
234 PM MDT WED AUG 7 2002

TONIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE LAST OF THE MID SUMMER SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE EPISODE FOR AWHILE. THE BACK WEST EDGE OF THIS RICH FETCH
OF MOISTURE IS ON THE UT/CO AND AZ/NM BORDERS THIS EARLY AFTN. THERE
IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR TSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN AGAIN FOR
TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER TRRN AND LOWER ELEV AND STORM MOVEMENT WILL
AGAIN BE FAIRLY SLOW TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW. BURN
AREAS WILL AGAIN NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. FOR ANOTHER DAY...A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LIES FROM THE
DENVER AREA NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO THE LOGAN COUNTY AREA SO WILL KEEP
THE SCT PCPN COVERAGE OVR THE PLAINS FOR THIS DESPITE HIGH CIN VALS.
ETA BRINGS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVR THE STATE LATE TGNT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BUT THIS MAY NOT PROVIDE MUCH INSTABILITY CONSIDERING THE
SOURCE AREA. UPPER FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 24HRS AND THIS WILL ACT TO PUSH THE MOISTURE
EASTWARD OUT OF STATE.

THURSDAY...A DRYER ATMSPHR WILL BE IN PLACE OVR THE STATE BY MIDDAY
THUR ALONG WITH WARMER MID LVL TEMPS. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE TOO MUCH
CIN TO OVER COME THUR AFTN/EVE WITH LOWER SFC DEWPTS AS FCST
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST. WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST OF NO POPS EAST OF
THE HIGHER TRRN BUT WILL ADD AN ISOLD CHANCE FOR THE MTNS AND
FTHILLS DUE TO ELEV TRRN AFFECTS AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE OF PAST WEEK.

FRIDAY...THE DRYNESS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE STATE. ALL MDLS AGREE
WITH A MORNING ARRIVAL OF THE SFC COOL FRONT. THIS SHD ACT TO KEEP
TEMPS DOWN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE DAY. TOMORROWS REALTIME
SFC OBS OVR MT AND WYO SHD GIVE A BETTER INDICATION AS TO WHAT TO
EXPECT FOR HIGHS/WX ON THURSDAY BUT A GOOD COOL DOWN SHD BE HAD FOR
THE BOU CWA. WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY AND THEN ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
EVENING STORMS FRIDAY EVE AS 2-4 DEGC COOLING TAKES PLACE AT MOST
MID LVLS BY LATE FRI.

SATURDAY...LOOKS MOSTLY SUBSIDENT AGAIN OVR THE AREA WITH BRISK DRY
AND COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW OVR THE STATE. HESITANT TO THINK ABOUT A
DAY 2 SCENARIO FOR THE CWA BUT THIS MAY BE A POSSIBILTY WITH
EASTERLY SFC FLOW ON THE PLAINS AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL
START WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OVR THE AREA FOR SATURDAY. SFC TEMPS BEGIN
TO WARM UP SLIGHTLY FROM FRIDAYS LVLS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRF PROJECTS ZONAL FLOW
OVR THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER COOL TROUGH ENTERS
SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN USA ROCKIES. BASED ON LOW RHS
VALUES AND GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVR THE STATE BOTH DAYS
WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY. ANOTHER COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY IN THE DAY MONDAY AND THIS MAY PROVIDE
ANOTHER FOCUS FOR AFTN/EVE TSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY AND WED. ALL LONG
TERM MDLS CONSISTANT SO FAR WITH BROAD TROUGH OVER THE USA NEXT WEEK
AND THUS COULD PROVIDE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  FREDIN

.DEN...NONE.