Flash Flood in Arizona, August 7, 2002

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE AUG 6 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
WILL SHIFT WEST AND STRENGTHEN OVER ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BEGIN A SUSTAINED DRYING TREND BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL AREAS TODAY UNTIL TOO
LATE IN THE DAY TO GET MUCH SURFACE HEATING GOING. 18Z AND 00Z
SOUNDINGS WERE STILL SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF THE BIG BLOWOUT
YESTERDAY WITH A MORE STABLE PROFILE. WE ALSO DIDNT HAVE MUCH FLOW
BELOW 20K FT. DEVELOPING WEST COAST TROUGH ALREADY BRINGING A MORE
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW IN FAR WESTERN AREAS...DRYING EVIDENT
ON BOTH GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
TRYING TO PUSH IN SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. WELL HANG ON TO DEEP
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SHOULD START SEEING A DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEST OF
TUCSON. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD WELL SEE MORE DRYING ALONG
WITH MID LEVEL WARMING MAKING FOR A MORE UNFAVORABLE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT BY THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. LESS CLOUD
COVER COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES ALONG
WITH LESS MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN A WIDER SWING IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AS WELL. ALL THE AFORE MENTIONED REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE...AND FIRST PERIOD BEHAVING AS CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. NO UPDATES. M

.TWC...NONE.