Lightning Strike in Florida, August 7, 2002

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2002

A FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWFA FROM NE TO SW THIS
EVENING...USHERING IN SOMEWHAT MORE COMFORTABLE AIR...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTH SUNCOAST...TO CLOSE OUT THE WORKWEEK.  AFTER THIS
EVENING...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SW THIRD OF THE AREA...AND
EVEN THERE COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF PATTERN...WHICH SHOWS
DEEP N FLOW IN ARREARS OF 500 MB TROUGHING OFF THE E COAST (AND
PERHAPS WITH AN ADDED PUNCH FROM THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL TO OUR E).
AVN/ETA ARE IN VIRTUAL AGREEMENT WITH DEEP LAYERED DRYING...WHILE
THE NGM IS A SHADE WETTER.  GIVEN PROPAGATION OF DRY AIR ACROSS E
GA AND MOVING INTO NE FL ATTM WILL LEAN TOWARD AN AVN/ETA SOLUTION.

SHORT TERM:
MAY ADD AN AFTN/EVE PERIOD TO HANDLE PRE-FRONTAL PCPN IN MOISTURE-
RICH AIR...WHICH STILL EXTENDS FROM SW-NE INTO THE E PANHANDLE.
OTHERWISE...DEEP DRYING SHOULD REACH THE NATURE COAST FIRST AND
EASE INTO THE CENTRAL AND S CENTRAL ZONES OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING
RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.  WILL LEAVE PCPN CHANCES OUT FROM OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT CENTRAL/N.  AN ISOLD SHOWER POSSIBLE NEAR TAMPA
BAY THURS AFTN...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION NOW.

FARTHER S...WILL RETAIN HIGHEST EVE PCPN CHANCES AND CONTINUE WITH
SCT WORDING THURS.  WILL CREEP RAIN CHC N ON FRI BUT STILL NOTHING
NEAR CLIMO AS OF YET.

EXTENDED:
SFC-850 MB FLOW VEERS TO E OR ESE OVER THE WEEKEND...AND AVN SHOWS
500 MB RIDGE CENTERED JUST N OF CWFA WITH PERTURBATION RUNNING TO
THE S.  IF WAVE IS REAL...PCPN COULD BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE
BEGINNING SUNDAY. FOR NOW...PREFER TO LEAN BACK TOWARD CLIMO AND
BROAD BRUSH THE SUN-WED PERIOD WITH CLIMO TEMPS/PCPN FAVORING AFTN
AND EVE TIME FRAME.

MARINE:
EXPECT AN EVENING SURGE ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE FRONT TOWARD OR JUST
AFTER 00Z.  WILL MAKE SPLIT SECOND DECISION ON WHETHER TO HOIST
SHORT-FUSED SCEC CENTRAL/N.  OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF 15 KT/GUSTY
TONIGHT IN GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT CENTRAL/N...THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF STEADY NE/E FLOW THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD JUST UNDER CAUTION
VALUES.

FIRE WX:
DWPTS SHOULD REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MARGINAL CONDS
THURS AFTN.  HOWEVER...WINDS MAY GUST TO 15 MPH AT TIMES AND WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR...ESPECIALLY N OF TAMPA BAY.  OUTSIDE OF THAT...NO
PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 068/090 067/090 1101
TPA 074/090 073/090 3112
GIF 071/089 071/089 2112
SRQ 074/090 073/090 3213
FMY 076/091 075/091 4324

.TBW...NONE.

88/GOLDSMITH

MARINE LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
307 PM EDT WED AUG 7 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....MARINE SUBZONE....   GMZ  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ......MARINE ZONE......

0226 PM    JOHNS PASS-CLWTR         853  WATERSPOUT
08/07/02   ENGLWD-TARP SPGS 20NM          NEAR INDIAN BLUFF.
                                          REPORTED BY SHERIFF OFFICE.

0242 PM    TAMPA BAY                 830  38 KT MARINE TSTM WIND
08/07/02   TAMPA BAY WATERS               MEASURED BY PORTS
                                          EQUIPMENT NEAR SUNSHINE
                                          SKYWAY BRIDGE.

NOAH