Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, April 26, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1240 PM MDT FRI APR 26 2002

CHALLENGES ARE SEVERITY AND EXTENT OF TONIGHTS PRECIPITATION.

WV/IR PICS SHOW UPPER LOW STEADILY ACCELERATING AS IT MOVES ENE OUT
OF SOCAL (NEW SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH ALONG WA/OR COAST PUSHING IT OUT).
EXPECTED TO REACH FOUR CORNERS THIS EVENING AS A S/W AND THE CYS/SNY
AREA BY 27/12Z. THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF YESTERDAYS EXPECTED TRACK.
IT IS REFLECTED AT LOWER LEVELS BY MESOETA SHOWING 85H CENTER OVER
EXTREME NW KS AT 27/12Z. RESULT WOULD BE A DRY SLOT/DRIER AIR WOULD
MOVE FURTHER NORTH INTO MY CWA LATE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.

WILL CONTINUE WITH ETA FOR FIRST 24-36 HRS AND THEN SHIFT TO AVN(NEW
MRF). EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE DRYING WITH ECM...AVN/MRF AND UKMET
IN PRETTY MUCH AGREEMENT THROUGH LATE TUE. POSSIBLE PRECIP WED WITH
S/W THEN DRYING AGAIN.

EMPHASIS AGAIN ON LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EXTENT AND SEVERITY
SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH AFTERNOON CLEARING AND WARMING OCCURS
IN FAR E CO. BOTH ONGOING ATTM. ALSO ON EXTENT OF TSRA ACTIVITY THAT
ERUPTS IN TX PANHANDLE/W OK. NEW DAY1 NOW BACKED TO WEST AND COVERS
SW 1/4 KS AND EXTREME SE OK. NEW ETA/MESOETA STILL SHOWS THETAE
RIDGE AND CAPE INCREASING NORTH OVER FAR E CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
BASED ON ABOVE EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO FORM IN FAR E CO AROUND SUNDOWN
AND MOVE ENE ACROSS CWA...WITH EMPHASIS IN NORTHERN PTN. LIKELY POPS
THERE AND SCT TO SOUTH. WILL PROBABLY MENTION LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND POSS...SOME POSS SEVERE...IN AREA TO BE AFFECTED BY SQUALL
LINE. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE
RAPIDLY BY MIDNIGHT IN SOUTH BUT HANG ON IN NORTH UNTIL WIND
SHIFT/COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS DURING MORNING. GUID TEMPS LOOK OK
WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE MILD...BREEZY TO WINDY AND SOMEWHAT MOIST
NIGHT.

SAT SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY TO E ACROSS S NEB WITH COOLER TEMPS IN NRN
CWA BECAUSE OF DELAYED CLEARING AND SOME CAA. WARMER ACROSS SOUTHERN
TIER OF CWA WITH EARLY CLEARING AND WARM DOWNSLOPE/WEST WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS SAT COULD BE 15 DEGREE OR GREATER RANGE ACROSS CWA FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DEPENDENT ON WHERE CLOUD COVER HOLDS. WILL DROP POPS/SLIGHT
CHANCE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST BY AFTERNOON.

WEAK RIDGE MOVES IN LATE SAT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW AND BRINGS DRY
WEATHER...VARIABLE CLOUDS...AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS TO AREA INTO
MIDWEEK. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY THAT IS WHEN NEXT UPPER SYSTEM...ONE
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST FINALLY MOVES INTO AREA AS
S/W.

.GLD...NONE.

RJC