Wildfire in California, July 28, 2002

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
330 AM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002

.SYNOPSIS...SEASONAL SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE
COMING WEEK. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE
COAST AND LOCALLY INLAND.

.DISCUSSION...VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS IN SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODELS INCONSISTENT ON SELECTING WHICH FEATURE
WILL EVENTUALLY DOMINATE AS THE ATMOSPHERIC SCALES ARE MORE THAN
LIKELY TO GO OUT OF BALANCE. WITH NO CLEAR CUT TREND AND/OR
INCONSISTENT GUIDANCE...PERSISTENCE OR CLIMATOLOGY ARE ONLY
REMAINING FORECAST OPTIONS. CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE
EXCEPT FOR TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND DRY WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT CLIMATOLOGY IF MONSOON THREAT IS ELIMINATED. THIS IS NOT SO
EASILY DISMISSED AS THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO UPPER LOWS NEARBY. ONE
IS CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES...DRIFTING SOUTHWEST NEAR 32N 125W.
THE OTHER IS A TUTT LOW DRIFTING NORTH NEAR 29N 115W. RESULTANT
STREAMFLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN A COL. LOW AND
MID LEVEL FLOW WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TURN TO THE S-SE LAST NIGHT
AND TODAY. SOUNDINGS FROM KNKX/KDRA AT 28/00Z SHOWED LIGHT SW-S
WHICH STILL SUPPORT THE DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL EXAMINE MORNING
SOUNDINGS...AFTER 530 AM PDT...FOR ANY SIGNS OF STEERING FLOW
SHIFTING TOWARDS SE AND WEAK DIVERGENCE AND/OR COOLING ALOFT THAT
WOULD DESTABILIZE AIR MASS. HAVE ADJUSTED TODAY/TONIGHT TEMPERATURES
IN SEVERAL ZONES TO REFLECT PERSISTENCE. THIS RESULTS IN WARMING
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED AND AGREES
WITH LATEST MODEL TREND OF REBUILDING HIGH/INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH MID WEEK....BUT MAGNITUDE
OF WARM UP UNCERTAIN SO DROPPED MODIFIERS. PER LATEST MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL RUNS...REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA TRACKS
WELL OUT TO SEA BEFORE PHASING WITH PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES. THIS TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE
IN THE COMING WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS NEVER FALL
BELOW 5890 METERS OVER SW CALIFORNIA...SO COOL DOWN MAY ALSO BE
OVERDONE. WILL AVOID TEMPTATION TO REGROUP/REWRITE DAY 4 THROUGH 7
FORECASTS AND LEAVE THIS OPTION WITH OTHERS GIVEN LITTLE CONFIDENCE
IN MODEL TREND DIRECTIONS/STRENGTHS GIVEN PREVAILING WEAK STEERING
FLOW. MORE CERTAINTY IN MARINE FORECAST. SEVERAL SWELL TRAINS
AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS...THE PEAK IN SOUTH SWELLS FROM RECENT
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR TODAY. AS
THEY SUBSIDE RENEWED SW SWELLS FROM DISTANT SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
STORMS ARRIVE...THUS SURF HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK.

SAN...NONE.

BALFOUR