Winter Storm in Arkansas, March 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CST SAT MAR 2 2002

ARCTIC FRONT STILL WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA BUT IT SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING. THE HILLS IN THE NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY
HOLD UP FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMEWHAT BUT ONCE THE COLD AIR BREAKS FREE
OF THE OZARKS...IT SHOULD RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
FIGURE ON THE MODELS BEING A LITTLE FAST AT 12Z...BUT BY 18Z THE
FRONT MAY BE STARTING TO CATCH UP TO THE MODELS LOCATION. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY 00Z THIS EVENING. AREA OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE
RAIN ON RADAR HAS A LOT OF LIGHTNING WITH IT WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
BEING ELEVATED. THIS SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. FIGURE
ON A MORE SOLID AREA OF RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...REACHING THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING AND MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. MAXES WILL LIKELY BE REACHED
EARLY WITH FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN SECTIONS WILL GET
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT INTRUSION OF COLD AIR MAY WELL BE DELAYED
BY OZARKS. THINK PRECIPITATION LIKELY WILL NOT CHANGE OVER UNTIL AROUND
NOON IN THE NORTH. AFTER COORDINATING WITH KSGF AND WITH THEM NOT GOING
WITH AN ADVISORY IN THEIR ADJACENT AREA AS OF YET...WILL HOLD OFF ON
ADVISORY IN NORTHERN ZONES FOR NOW. IF COLD AIR GETS HELD UP
ENOUGH...PRECIPITATION COULD BE MOSTLY OVER BEFORE CHANGEOVER WITH
LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT FORECAST OF AN INCH
OR LESS FOR NOW...BUT IF COLD AIR GETS IN SOONER THAN EXPECTED...
UPGRADE TO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY IN THE NORTH WOULD BE REQUIRED. WESTERN
AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL ZONES COULD ALSO SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW BEFORE
PRECIPITATION ENDS...BUT THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THOSE AREAS
IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST...PRECIPITATION SHOULD END IN MOST AREAS BY
00Z...BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTH FOR EARLY
TONIGHT AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST. ARCTIC AIR TAKES
STRONG HOLD OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MOS INDICATES
THIS COULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER AND THIS LOOKS
POSSIBLE...WILL GO CLOSE TO FWC MOS ON TEMP FORECASTS. SURFACE HIGH
PLUNGES INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING SOUTHWEST WINDS AND
A GOOD WARMUP INTO NEXT WEEK.

.LZK...NONE