Heavy Snow in West Virginia, March 2, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
244 AM EST SAT MAR 2 2000

PRECIPITATION OVERSPREADS AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST TODAY.
SOUTHERN SYSTEM RATHER MOISTURE LADEN WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT
AHEAD OF IT...WITH ANTECEDENT CHILLY...VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
COLD AIR DAMMING ILLUSTRATED BY VERY STRONG AGEO WIND AMONG OTHER
THINGS.  VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES JUST COLD ENUF FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET
OVER THE GREENBRIER VALLEY INTO POCAHONTAS COUNTY WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW FREEZING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

THINKING THE ONSET OF PRECIP IS CLOSE TO FIRST THING THIS MORNING
FOR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND BY LATE MORNING POCAHONTAS COUNTY
WHERE IT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW INITIALLY...THEN GO OVER
TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN ALL RAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  WILL WRITE ADV UP FOR POCAHONTAS FOR COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND ICE.

MAIN SURGE OF WARM ADV/ISEN LIFT THROUGH AREA BY EVENING.  SECOND
WAVE OVER CENTRAL TX THIS AM COMES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT JUST AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.  COLD FRONT SHOWN TO ARRIVE CLOSE TO 12Z AND
TRAVERSE AREA QUICKLY.  ANOTHER GOOD LATE SEASON COLD SURGE BEHIND
THIS WITH GOOD UPSLOPE ALTHOUGH MOISTURE NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS LAST
TIME.  UPSLOPE SHOULD CUT OFF MON EVE AS ADV TERM SWITCHES SIGNS.

WILL GO BELOW MOS BKW ON UPSLOPE TODAY OTHERWISE CLOSE.  NUMBERS
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING OF FRONT.  CURRENT
PACKAGE IS STILL BETWEEN THE NUMBERS AND LOOKS REASONABLE FOR NOW.

AVN STILL SHOWING LITTLE WARM ADV EVENT UPPER OHIO VALLEY MON
NT/TUE.  MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO INSERT FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SOME
NORTHERN ZONES BUT KICKING THE CAN ON THAT FOR THE MOMENT.

THANKS RNK AND LWX FOR COORD.

WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TODAY FOR ZONE WVZ046.

VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

.END / TRM