Name: Wildfire in Arizona, May 1 to 4, 2002
Start: 2002-05-01T08:00
End: 2002-05-04T12:00
Location: Arizona

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $90,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

The Ryan fire was started by a campfire in Coronado National Forest at Canelo Hill on April 29th and continued through May 4th. The fire burned 38,800 acres with estimated fire fighting costs of 1.2 million dollars. The fire burned one house and several outbuildings.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 2:19 AM MST, 5 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 1, 2:19 AM MST, 5 hours 41 minutes before

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
219 AM MST WED MAY 1 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ANOTHER
WINDY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REDEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO...LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS
TUESDAY WILL CAUSE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN
TODAY. LATEST MODELS HAD A PRETTY GOOD FIX ON THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS TRACK THIS
SYSTEM EAST INTO NORTHERN UTAH BY THIS EVENING CAUSING THE HEIGHT
GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN AND SHIFT FARTHER SOUTHEAST TODAY. BOTH THE ETA
AND AVN MODELS STRENGTHEN THE 700MB FLOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA MEXICO BY 18Z...BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE WINDS BY 00Z. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MESOETA
MAINTAINED A FAIRLY STRONG FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. POINT MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE AIRMASS OVER
ARIZONA ALSO REMAINED RATHER DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S...AND NO MOISTURE RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
THIS FAR SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ONLY MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL BE UP AROUND 30KFT IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. THUS...
A COMBINATION OF MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS BELOW 15 PCT...SUSTAIN
WINDS TO 25 MPH...AND A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER RATING
WARRANTS THE MENTION OF A RED FLAG WARNING AND PUBLIC WIND ADVISORY
FOR TODAY. SO IN A NUTSHELL...THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO REACH THESE
CRITERIA WILL BE FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND EAST OF A TUCSON TO NOGALES LINE. ON A POSITIVE
NOTE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY AS HEIGHTS LOWER IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. MEDIUM RANGES MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS TROUGH
WILL HELP KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEAK DESPITE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.

.TWC...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR FWX ZONES 146 AND 148.
       PUBLIC WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR ZONES 19/30/35.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Santa Cruz

When: May 1, 8:00 AM MST to May 4, 12:00 PM MST
Where: Santa Cruz County, Canelo
Property damage: $90,000
Reported by: PARK/FOREST SERVICE
Coordinates: 31.526, -110.847 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Wildfire: A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2002 Every state in 2002 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, May 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5294832.