Name: Flash Flood in Arizona, July 9, 2002
Start: 2002-07-09T17:00
End: 2002-07-09T23:59
Location: Arizona

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

A Forest Service employee reported that Salt Creek Road about 7 miles northwest of Cibecue washed out between 5:00 PM and midnight. Logs and boulders covered the road and heavy equipment was needed to clear the road. This location is downstream from where the Chediski-Rodeo Fire burned over 450,000 acres in late June and early July.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUL 09 2002

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT
BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS
SYSTEM  WILL FUEL DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE CWA. DPS
ACROSS THE CWA RANGING BTWN 45 AND 55 DEGREES. NOAA/FSL GPS IPWV
INDICATING PW VALUES CLOSE TO .85 INCHES ATTM. CONVECTION HAS FIRED
UP OVER THE RIM AND NEAR THE N.M. BORDER AND THE FLOW SHOULD CARRY
THIS ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON. ETA AND AVN
INDICATING VORT MAX ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION THRU MOST
OF THE NIGHT THERE. BIG DIFFERENCES BTWN ETA AND AVN REGARDING QPF
BUT BOTH MODELS TARGETING THE SAME AREAS (SOUTHERN RIM/WHITES)
FOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
CHEDISKI-RODEO FIRE SITE THRU EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS PERIOD. MOIST EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND GREAT BASIN HIGH TO CONTINUE. ATMOSPHERE STAYS UNSTABLE PER
LIS/CAPE/OMEGA PROGS WITH EMBEDDED S/WVS ROTATING ACROSS THE
STATE. EXPECT PATTERN OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE.

EXTEND...STRONG H5 HIGH OVER GREAT BASIN PROGGED TO DRIFT EASTWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY TAPPING MOISTURE OVER
OLE MEXICO. TROPICAL STORM MOVING UP WEST COAST OF BAJA LIKELY TO
CONTRIBUTE MORE MOISTURE TO THE FLOW. WILL KEEP THE STANDARD MONSOON
FCST OF SHOWERS/TSTMS EACH DAY. DF

.FGZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS IN AND AROUND THE CHEDISKI-RODEO
FIRE SITE IN ZONES 16...17...18.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON WED   THU     FRI        TON WED   THU     FRI
FLAGSTAFF        055/083 057/081 055/082      050 040 050 040 030 030
WINSLOW          070/093 068/092 068/093      040 060 050 030 030 020
PRESCOTT         067/093 064/090 066/091      040 050 040 040 030 030
PAGE             077/100 075/097 076/098      030 030 040 030 030 020
WINDOW ROCK      055/084 052/082 053/083      060 060 050 050 040 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 070/092 069/091 068/091      050 040 050 040 040 030
COTTONWOOD       070/104 071/101 069/102      030 040 030 030 020 020
GRAND CANYON     054/085 056/083 054/084      030 030 040 030 040 020
GREER            051/079 053/077 051/078      050 060 050 050 050 050
HEBER            064/088 066/086 066/087      050 060 050 050 040 040
JACOB LAKE       055/081 057/079 055/080      030 030 040 030 040 040
NAVAJO N.M.      069/087 068/086 067/086      050 050 040 040 030 030
PAYSON           066/095 067/094 067/094      050 040 050 040 050 030
SEDONA           073/094 070/094 072/094      040 040 040 050 040 040
SELIGMAN         059/096 057/096 059/096      030 040 030 030 020 020
SHOW LOW         065/089 065/087 063/088      050 050 050 050 050 030
ST. JOHNS        065/087 063/086 063/087      050 060 050 040 050 040
WUPATKI N.M.     073/097 071/095 071/095      040 040 040 050 040 040

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 122 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:05 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Navajo

When: July 9, 5:00 PM MST to 11:59 PM MST
Where: Navajo County, Cibecue
Reported by: GOVT OFFICIAL
Coordinates: 35.400, -110.321 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2002 Every state in 2002 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, July 2002

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5311275.