Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 8, 2002

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST MON JUL 8 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO A POSITION TO ALLOW
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE FROM NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THEM TO BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN VALLEYS LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WE
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED MORE SUNSHINE...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON...WITH REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA (EXCEPT WESTERN PIMA COUNTY) UNDER A BKN DECK OF
MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROF OVER NORTHERN
SONORA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. APPEARS THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL BE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA TONIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROF
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST AND INCREASE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH BEST DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE BORDER...SONORA IS LIGHTING UP
FOR THE FIRST TIME...AND THAT IS A GOOD SIGN. HOPEFULLY OUTFLOWS
FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THERE WILL SPREAD NEEDED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT REALLY
KICKS IN TUESDAY AND HANGS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST
GOING FOR THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS
DUE TO CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP THEM RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR JULY. G

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-090700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1158 AM MST MON JUL 8 2002

.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES
EAST OF A LINE FORM NOGALES TO KEARNY TODAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL
INTERACT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THAT
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF
RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IS BELOW THAT OF
CLIMATOLOGY...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES. IN ADDITION...WITH THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINING
SOMEWHAT DRY...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

.DISCUSSION...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO...THE FLOW PATTERN HAS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO ALLOW LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM NEW MEXICO. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN
THE SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH RISES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES
OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
STILL NOT PRESENT...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MODERATE AMOUNT OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF A LINE FROM NOGALES TO KEARNY.

THIS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN FAR
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO PUSHING EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN
VALLEYS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH IS BELOW THAT OF CLIMATOLOGY...THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE
FAR EAST WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES.

WITH THE LOW-LEVELS REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRY...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

STORM MOTION IS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.