Damaging Winds in Texas, July 8, 2002

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
910 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

SHORTWAVE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA THIS EVENING WITH
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA OCCURRING. 18Z MESOETA
SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED UVV SPREADING ACROSS EASTERN
ZONES NEXT FEW HOURS. 00Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS PW OF 1.91
INCHES...VERY STEEP 850-700 MB LAPSE RATE...AND CAPE OF 6000.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS CWA AHEAD OF
CONVECTION. GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND AXIS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AT LEAST A FEW MORE
HOURS AS IT SPREADS INTO CWA DESPITE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WILL
GO 40 POPS/POSSIBLE SEVERE EASTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT AND 20 POPS
ELSEWHERE. NO OTHER CHANGES TO FCST.

35/43

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL BB 074/095 075/094 075 242
IAH BB 076/095 076/094 076 442
GLS BB 079/091 080/090 080 442

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TSRA STARTING TO POP UP OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON JUST AS
THE S/W MOVES IN AND WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING. MODELS NOT INDICATING
ANYTHING TOO DIFFERENT THAN WHAT THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ADVERTISING
ATTM...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE LIKELY WITH THIS PACKAGE. THE PERSIS-
TENT (AND DEEP) E/SE FLOW SHOULD KEEP BRINGING WEAK S/WS TO THE CWFA
AS THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP (PEAKING AOA 2.2 BY
TUES). BY MID WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES WILL
BE IN PLACE JUST AS A COOL FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. ITS NOT
LIKELY THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO THE COAST BUT THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVI-
RONMENT IS PROGGED TO BE ON THE HOT/DRY/CAPPED SIDE. SFC AND MID LVL
WINDS FROM THE SW SHOULD PUT A KIBOSH ON ANY WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
STILL NOT REFLECTING THIS THINKING.

AS FOR THE AREA OF DISTURBED WX IN THE GULF...ALL/MOST OF THE MODELS
ARE POINTING TO BROWNSVILLE AND POINTS SOUTHWARD AS BEING THE LIKELY
WINNERS OF THE TROPICAL RAIN POOL. 41/45

GMZ335-TXZ163-164-177>179-199-200-213-214-238-080900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
925 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN
THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF INTERSTATE 45
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. IN ADDITION...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

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