Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 8, 2002

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST MON JUL 8 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO A POSITION TO ALLOW
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE FROM NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT THEM TO BE MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
MONDAY...BUT A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN VALLEYS LATE IN THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF VALLEY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE PUSHES INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. WE
SHOULD SEE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED MORE SUNSHINE...MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON...WITH REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA (EXCEPT WESTERN PIMA COUNTY) UNDER A BKN DECK OF
MID-HI LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROF OVER NORTHERN
SONORA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. APPEARS THAT THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL BE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA TONIGHT AS THE INVERTED TROF
MOVES SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST AND INCREASE
SURFACE DEWPOINTS THAT THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. WITH BEST DYNAMICS SOUTH OF THE BORDER...SONORA IS LIGHTING UP
FOR THE FIRST TIME...AND THAT IS A GOOD SIGN. HOPEFULLY OUTFLOWS
FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THERE WILL SPREAD NEEDED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT REALLY
KICKS IN TUESDAY AND HANGS AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL KEEP STANDARD MONSOON FORECAST
GOING FOR THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS
DUE TO CLOUD COVER/RAINFALL...SO WILL KEEP THEM RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
FOR JULY. G

.TWC...NONE.