High Wind in Alaska, October 24 to 26, 2002

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
230 PM ADT THU OCT 24 2002

LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND N PACIFIC
WITH A RIDGE FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE BEAUFORT SEA WILL PERSIST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK FOR MOST OF STATE. A SERIES OF STRONG
SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH ACROSS ALASKA WILL BRING MOISTURE TO THE
WESTERN PART OF NORTHERN ALASKA...AND CHINOOK CONDITIONS TO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.

MODELS INITIALIZE SIMILARLY. A STRONG JET STREAK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
IS NOW CAUSING THE DEEPENING OF A LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH 24 HRS...THEN ETA WEAKENS
IT RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INLAND WHILE THE AVN MAINTAINS THE DEPTH.
SINCE THE LOW HAS STRONG SUPPORT ALOFT...WE FAVOR A MORE GRADUAL
WEAKENING BETWEEN THE AVN AND ETA AT 36 HRS. BY 48 HRS FAVOR A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE AVN AS THE FEATURE AGAIN MOVES OVER THE WATER.
WE WILL USE THE AVN SOLUTION BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS AT 36
AND 42 HRS.

AN OLD OCCLUDED FRONT FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO PAPO-PANC WILL MOVE TO
PAWI-PAIN AND DISSIPATE BY 4AM FRI. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONT EXCEPT IN CHINOOK AREAS. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

A SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT FROM PABA-PPIZ WILL MOVE TO PABA-PABR BY
4AM FRI..AND BACK TO PABA-PALU 4PM FRI. STRATUS AND FOG WILL REMAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM PABR EAST WITH FLURRIES TO THE WEST.
WILL SEE SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN WHERE OCCLUDED FRONT OVER
RUNS ARCTIC FRONT...WITH RAIN SOUTH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT.

THE DEEPENING LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO BRISTOL BAY AS
A 975 MB LOW 4AM FRI WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM PABE-PADQ...BY 4PM FRI
AS A 980 LOW NEAR PABE WITH THE FRONT FROM PABE-PAUN-PANC...BY 4AM SAT
TO PATC AS A 980 LOW WITH THE FRONT FROM PAPO-PABT-PABI...AND
DISSIPATING ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST 4PM SAT. MAINLY RAIN ALONG THIS
FRONT WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN NEAR THE LOW CENTER. SOUTHEAST WINDS
35KT ALONG THE FRONT. THE WINDS AND RAIN WILL WEAKEN AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES INLAND. WILL SEE STRONG CHINOOK WINDS WESTERN ALASKA
RANGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH MORE MODERATE CHINOOK EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE DUE TO FLOW BEING SOUTHEAST.

A TROUGH ALOFT BEHIND THE LOW WILL MOVE TO PAOM-PAIL 4AM SAT...
AND TO PAOT-PAIN 4PM SAT. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 KT.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HI WIND WARNING ZONE 225.
MARINE...SCA 9A....9B...10A.

JB OCT 02