High Wind in Alaska, November 4, 2002

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
400 AM AST MON NOV 4 2002

AVN AND ETA SIMILAR IN SOLUTION WITH THE MAIN FEATURE...THE MONSTROUS
LOW NEARING THE BERING SEA. ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED IT
WEAKER THAN IT IS, WILL GO WITH AVN SOLUTION PAST 36 HOURS. AVN HAS
HANDLED THE LOW AND THE SUBORDINATE WAVES ROTATING NORTHWARD MUCH BETTER
THAN THE ETA.

THE OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY FROM ABOUT NUNIVAK ISLAND TO NEAR
ANCHORAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS NORTHWARD TO LIE ABOUT NOME TO NEAR
LIVENGOOD BY 12Z TUE. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE TO ABOUT POINT HOPE
TO BETTLES BY 12Z WED. THIS WILL OVERRUN THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY BY 12Z TUE.

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM THAT THIS WILL POSE IS FREEZING RAIN. NORTH OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT SHOULD SEE ALL SNOW AND DEPENDING UPON HOW WELL THE
OVERRUNNING REGIME ENHANCES THE SNOWFALL, COULD SEE A FEW INCHES ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WILL WAIT AND TRACK THIS MORE
CLOSELY AS TIME NEARS.

THE CONTINUAL DOMINATING HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PROVIDE FOR THE WINDS THAT WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST. WILL SEE A DECENT GRADIENT AND WINDS COULD REACH HIGH WIND
CRITERIA ALONG THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST. WILL FOLLOW THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION MORE CLOSELY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

WEST COAST FROM ABOUT SHISHMAREF SOUTHWARD WILL SEE PROBABLY ALL RAIN.
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
ALREADY.

THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE WARM AIR REGIME. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A TRUE CHINOOK REGIME WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BEING TO SOUTHEASTERLY, IT STILL IS A DRY FLOW AND DOES ALLOW
FOR SOME DOWNSLOPE EFFECT.

AS THE GULF COAST CONTINUES TO WONDER WHEN THE RAIN AND FLOODING WILL
CEASE, THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO WONDER WHEN WINTER WILL ARRIVE. THE
INTERIOR CONTINUES TO RUN 20 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR AVERAGE
DAILY READINGS. THROUGH 240 HOURS, IT SEEMS THAT THE PATTERN WILL NOT
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AT ALL. THE WEST COAST FROM ABOUT THE SEWARD
PENINSULA SOUTHWARD WILL REMAIN IN A WET BUT WARM PATTERN AS WELL WITH
PROBABLY ALL OF THEIR PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN OR AT BEST MIXED
WITH SNOW. THE ARCTIC COAST MAY BE JUST NORTH ENOUGH TO GET TEASED WITH
WINTER PERIODICALLY ALTHOUGH THE 850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE -4 AS
TIME PROGRESSES THROUGH TO 120 HOURS.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...14, 9A, 9B, 10B, AND 11A.
         SCA...10A
         BRSK...11B
CF NOV 02