Flash Flooding in Texas, November 4 to 5, 2002

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CST MON NOV 4 2002

...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING THREAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON...THE BULK OF THE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS FROM 2-2.5 INCHES WERE NOTED WITH RAINGAUGES IN
THESE LOCATIONS BUT FOR POINTS SOUTH AVERAGES WERE 1 INCH OR LESS.
PER SFC ANALYSES...THE WARM FRONT HAS STARTED MAKING SOME NWD PRO-
GRESS BACK TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE A
RESULT OF THE DEEPENING CONVECTION JUST SW OF CRP. THIS CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS NE THIS AFTN AOA 25 KTS
AND COULD MAKE THE FORECAST TONIGHT A BIT TRICKIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS WERE STILL INDICATING A RATHER
BUSY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A SFC LOW/WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER TX
COAST AND WORKS ITS WAY UP THE SHORELINE (IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME
RATHER SIGNIFICANT PWS AROUND 2.2).  DIFLUENCE ALOFT COUPLED WITH
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LVL SHEAR AND THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALL POINTED TO FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY RAINS AREAWIDE AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR COASTAL/NEAR COASTAL REGION.
THE MAIN DIFFERENCES OF NOTE WITH THE 12Z RUNS WERE WITH TIMING...
THE GFS/AVN APPEARED TO BE RUNNING ABOUT 6HRS FASTER THAN THE ETA.
HOWEVER HAVING SAID ALL THIS...THE PRESENCE OF THE CLUSTER OF TSRA
COULD THROW THE PROVERBIAL MONKEY WRENCH IN ALL OUR CAREFULLY LAID
OUT FORECAST MACHINATIONS. SHOULD THIS FEATURE CONTINUE ON ITS NE
TRACK...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINS/STRONG DYNAMICS COULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE. BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL SERIOUSNESS OF THIS EVENT (AS
THE GROUNDS ARE EXTREMELY SATURATED)...WILL OPT TO CONTINUE THE
FLOOD WATCH AREAWIDE AND MENTION OF SEVERE WX FOR THE FIRST TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES FROM THE COAST. RAPID CLEARING FROM THE N/NW
STILL ON TAP FOR TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A DRY REST OF THE WEEK.
41/30

.HGX...FFA ENTIRE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
       SCA BAYS AND HIGH ISLAND TO MATAGORDA 0-60 NM.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 054/065 045/068 044 +60
IAH TT 060/067 049/069 046 +80
GLS TT 067/072 057/068 056 +80

GMZ300-330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-042300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
530 AM CST MON NOV 4 2002

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FOR MUCH OF TODAY...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT AND DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 6 TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE LAST WEEK AND A HALF
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS HAS RESULTED IN THE GROUND BECOMING SATURATED
WITH MANY RIVERS AND STREAMS ALREADY PAST FLOOD STAGE. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CREATE FLOODING ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
TUESDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL WILL END DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.