High Wind in Alaska, November 4 to 6, 2002

SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
10 AM AST MON NOV 4 2002

ANALYSIS...THE WARM FALL PATTERN PERSISTS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A
NUMBER OF LOW CENTERS ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE THIS MORNING THE LONG
WAVES SHAPE UP TO APPROXIMATELY 4-WAVES WITH THE HUGE ANCHOR OVER
FAR NORTHERN CANADA. A MAJOR UPPER LOW IS NEARLY OVER COLD BAY AS
OF 12Z MONDAY WHICH SUPPORTS A 953MB STORM FORCE LOW. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -23C BUT -26C AT KODIAK FOR A WARM CORE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY LEAVES NO DOUBT THAT THERE IS A SECONDARY
CLOSED LOW NEAR 50/151W AS OF 17Z ABOUT 970MB OR SO. THIS SECOND
LOW IS TRACKING DUE NORTH AT THE MOMENT. THE OCCLUDED FRONT HAS
GONE ALOFT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED ONSHORE
OVER LOWER COOK INLET INTO THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THERE
APPEARS TO BE LOTS OF MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE SECOND SYSTEM AND
CLOSES UP NEAR KODIAK ISLAND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN END OF KAMCHATKA SUPPORTING A AROUND A 980MB COLDER CORE
SURFACE LOW. A MONDO BAROCLINIC LEAF SHOWS UP WELL SOUTH OF
SHEMYA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET IS
170 KNOTS OFF JAPAN AND CONTINUES TO AN EXIT AROUND 40/150W. THIS
JET PUTS THE SECOND LOW IN THE UPPER LEFT QUAD. ANOTHER JET IS
SOUTHEASTERLY OVER LOWER COOK INLET ABOUT 65 KNOTS.

FORECASTS...A FIRST LOOK AT THE 12Z ETA AND AVN RUNS WAS
DISAPPOINTING IN THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO THE SOUTH WAS
BARELY INDICATED. THE 12Z UKMET IS THE BEST ONE ON INITIALIZATION
ABOUT 970 MB. THE 12Z AVN SEEMS TO CATCH UP WITH THE UKMET MOVING
THE SECOND LOW DOWN TO 963 MB NEAR SAND POINT BY 12Z TUE AS THE
OLD LOW HARDLY FILLS MOVING SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOFS. THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF MENTIONED ABOVE DEVELOPS TO A LOW IN THE 960S
SOUTH OF THE GULF BY 12Z WED AS A SERIES OF OLD WAVES MOVE INTO
THE GULF. ONE OF THESE WAVES IS FORECASTED BY THE AVN TO DEVELOP
INTO THE 960S IN THE BARRENS BY 00Z THU. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST WARM AND WET IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA LATER ON THURSDAY FOR COOLER OFFSHORE FLOW.

.AFC...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 185.
         WIND ADVSRY 111 121 145 125 135 151 155 161 171 191 195.
MARINE...STORM 2B. GALES 3ABC 4 4A 5AB 6AB 8 12AB 12A1 15.

JC NOV 02