Hail in Alabama, May 29, 2002

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

WHEN IT RAINS...IT POURS.  MOBILE OFFICIALLY RECEIVED RIGHT AT 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND ITS STILL
RAINING.  LOCAL RAIN GAUGE REPORTS INDICATE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVED
UP TO NEARLY 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...
AND 88D RAINFALL ESTIMATES AGREE...WITH SOME 4 TO 5 INCH TOTALS
INDICATED OVER MOBILE COUNTY.  WHILE MOBILE COUNTY RECEIVED MOST OF
THE RAINFALL...RADAR INDICATES THAT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG A EAST-WEST
EXTENDING BAND OF 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL FELL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF FCST AREA LAST 24 HOURS...ROUGHLY FROM NEAR LUCEDALE TO BAY
MINETTE OVER TO NEAR CRESTVIEW AND ANDALUSIA.

MOST OF THIS PCPN WAS RESULT OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE THAT PASSED TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH INTERACTED
WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.  AS PREVIOUS FCST SHIFT NOTED...
ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED OVER FLORIDA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE NOW SEEN MOVING WEST OVER GULF WATERS SOUTH
OF FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION.  AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...EXPECT THIS
FEATURE TO RESULT IN ROUND 2 OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF.  AFTERNOON SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...RESIDUAL
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN FORM OF UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY
AND SLIGHT COOLING OF MIDLEVEL TEMPS...WILL ALL AID THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE FCST AREA TODAY.  ALL 00Z MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...AND WITH NOTHING TO REALLY
HANG MY HAT ON WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND COVERAGE...WILL OPT TO GO
WITH LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES TODAY.  WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN
THAN WHAT WE HAVE HAD LATELY...MAX TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER STILL LOOKS TO
BE THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY 00Z SATURDAY.  AVN
STILL WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME PCPN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
REMNANTS OF AN OLD COLD FRONT WASHING OUT OVER FCST AREA REMAINS A
FOCUS...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED BY THEN.  WILL
PROBABLY SEE DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MARINE AND FIRE...NO HIGHLIGHTS NECESSARY FOR EITHER FCST.  TOO
MOIST AND WET FOR ANY FIRE CONCERNS NOW...AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE BY LATE WEEK AND
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

/12

PRELIM CCF...
MOB TT 083/066 084/067 086 12635
PNS TT 084/067 084/068 084 12635
DTS TT 084/067 084/068 084 12635
GZH TT 084/064 084/064 086 12636
2R0 TT 083/065 083/064 086 12746
61A TT 084/064 084/064 086 12636

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
240 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    LOXLEY                    AL   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/29/02   BALDWIN                        REPORTED BY LOCAL
                                          TELEVISION STATION.