Hail and Damaging Winds in Wisconsin, August 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

SIG CHANGES TO LARGE SCALE PATTERN WELL UNDERWAY. STG SHRTWV TRACKING
ACRS SRN CANADA WL HELP ESTABLISH MEAN TROF OVER ERN NOAM. ONCE TROF IS
ESTABLISHED...RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES. THE
RESULT WL BE THAT AFTER TDA...MY FCST AREA WL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF WX
WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...TEMPS AT OR A BIT BLO NORMAL...AND ONLY A MINIMAL
CHC OF SIG PCPN.

TRANSITION TO THAT PATTERN WL OCCUR TDA AS VERY WARM HUMID AIR MASS GETS
DISPLACED BY STG COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS. THINGS HV
NOT EXACTLY GONE ACCORDING TO PLAN THUS FAR. HAD BEEN EXPECTING
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MV ACRS MY FCST AREA TDA. HOWEVER...TSTM
COMPLEXES THAT DEVELOPED W/N OF MY FCST AREA YDA EVENING WERE RAPIDLY
DYING OFF. THUS PCPN CHC WL LIKELY DEPEND ON NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT AS ATM DESTABILIZES AGAIN DURING THE DAY. PROBLEM IS THAT FRONT WL
BE CROSSING MY FCST AREA BTWN 15Z AND 21Z...EARLIER THAN IDEAL FOR
GETTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN MY FCST AREA. STILL THINK STORMS WL
DEVELOP...BUT AREAL COVERAGE WL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. SO...
BACKED FCST OFF TO CHC POPS ACRS THE AREA FOR TDA...AND RELOCATED
HIGHEST POPS TO THE SE PART OF MY FCST AREA WHERE FRONT WL BE LOCATED
THIS AFTN.

VERY FEW CHGS MADE TO THE REST OF THE FCST. STILL LOOKS LIKE A CHC OF
SHOWERS ON SUN AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT DROPS SWD FROM CANADA. HOWEVER...NW
FLOW ALOFT AND DRY AIR AT LOW-LEVELS WL PROBABLY KEEP ANY PCPN SCT AND
QUITE LGT.

COORD W DLH.

.GRB...NONE.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-091900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ONCE
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MARINETTE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

KALLAS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

@RUKWBCe	:KDENNZUS90 KGRB 091658
BROGRB
WIZ022-039-091815-

GILLS ROCK OBSERVATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1158 AM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED AT GILLS ROCK AT NOON CENTRAL
TIME...

WIND SOUTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS.
PEAK WIND IN THE LAST HOUR 12 KNOTS.
AIR TEMPERATURE 88 DEGREES.

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-091900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU AUG 9 2001

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BETWEEN NOON AND 4 PM. GIVEN
THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ONCE
THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM WISCONSIN RAPIDS TO MARINETTE.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHENEVER
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT.

KALLAS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB