Lightning Strike in Vermont, August 7, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2001

CONVECTION HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING GOING TODAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH ONLY WEAK AND SHALLOW FORCING HELPING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
DEVELOP.  WE HAD THOUGHT THAT ONCE THE CAP HAD BEEN PUNCTURED WE
WOULD SEE SOME VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT WERE
STILL ONLY SEEING A FEW SUCCESSFUL CELLS.  WILL ADD STRONGER WORDING
TO THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE ZONES NEVERTHELESS.

AFTER THIS EVENING...WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RATHER QUIET OVERNIGHT
WITH CLEARING ENSUING AS A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.  WEDNESDAY SHOULD TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90F RANGE.  12 UTC AVN/ETA DRIVE
A WARM FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN VERMONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  ON THURSDAY...SETTING UP FOR
WHAT COULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS CURRENT STRETCH.  ALTHOUGH IT
HAD BEEN LOOKING DRY ALL ALONG FOR THURSDAY...ETA SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW
THE CAP ERODING BY AFTERNOON AND A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AS
WERE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON.  SO HAVE ADDED CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDER ALL ZONES...AND WELL JUST HAVE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

MEDIUM RANGE...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY AS PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.  STILL
NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA...
BUT ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL LEND SOME SHORT-TERM RELIEF.  COOLING
OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG-AWAITED FRONT FINALLY BURSTS
SOUTHWARD.  NO BIG MODEL DISCREPANCIES THROUGH SUNDAY...COOL...SUNNY
AND DRY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE TRACK OF ANY REINFORCING SHORTWAVES DRIVING THROUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH SETTLING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.  FOR NOW...HAVE GONE DRY FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

ST. JEAN

.BTV...NONE.

NYZ026-027-029-030-034-035-VTZ009>012-080100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
430 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2001

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 9 PM...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE VERMONT COUNTIES OR ADDISON AND ORANGE SOUTHWARD. IN NEW
YORK THE WATCH COVERS ESSEX...FRANKLIN AND ST LAWRENCE COUNTIES.
THIS WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY CAUSE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO
TONIGHT.

KEEP IN MIND...THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANYONE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND
OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR ANY
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS THAT MAY BE ISSUED.

SFH