Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 21, 2001

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
253 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2001

DRYLINE SITTING ON TOP OF CITY OF LUBBOCK AND EXTENDS FROM EAST OF
CDS TO LBB TO EAST OF INK. LITTLE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT AS SYNOPTIC
SCALE PRESSURE FALLS ACRS SRN ROCKIES ARE KEEPING WINDS WEST OF THE
DRYLINE BACKED TO S/SW. VISUAL INSPECTION LOCALLY REVEALED A FEW
RAGGED HIGH BASED CU HAVE BEEN ABLE TO FORM UNDERNEATH CIRRUS. LAPS
INDICATING BEST CAPE/CIN COMBINATION IS IN SW TX NEAR MAF WITH
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT MOST LIKELY THAT AREA. ADVECTION OF TSRA THAT
AREA COMBINED WITH EFFECTS FROM SHORTWAVE COMING OFF MEXICAN PLATEAU
AND APRROACH OF UPPER CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER SRN CALIF AND ITS
ASSOCIATED BROAD SCALE LIFT AND MID LEVEL COOLING NECESSITATES
CONTINUED CHC POPS OVERNIGHT. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS MAINLY FOR
EVENING HOURS SHOULD ACTIVITY MOVE NWD UP DRYLINE.

CLOSED LOW MOVES ONTO CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY WITH PACIFIC FRONT
EXITING THE FA BY/AROUND NOON. WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS STILL ON
TARGET. SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. CAA BEHIND
FRONT PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH SFC HIGH SETTLING OVER PANHANDLE
MONDAY.

EXTENDED BENIGN WITH UPPER RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST. NO SIG INCREASE
IN THICKNESSES OR H85 TEMPS SUGGEST MILD TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
SOME WARMING THEREAFTER.

FRIONA     57/73/35/68  4000
TULIA      59/73/36/68  4000
CHILDRESS  66/80/43/68  4300
BROWNFIELtD 62/75/39/68  4000
LUBBOCK    63/75/40/68  4-00
ASPERMONT  68/82/50/71  3200

.LUB...NONE.

BARRITT

TXZ021>044-211900-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT SAT APR 21 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CAPROCK.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS...THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TONIGHT.

A DRYLINE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR A MEMPHIS...MATADOR...POST LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DRYLINE WILL MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE EVENING AND BE LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER
BY MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DRYLINE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. IT APPEARS THAT A SQUALL LINE
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA WITH DAMAGING
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THIS
LINE WILL LIKELY BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS NEAR
SUNRISE.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER
GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHEDR CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.