Hail in Texas, April 21, 2001

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
244 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2001

ATMOSPHERE IS GETTING QUITE UNSTABLE EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
SURFACE COLD FRONT STILL LIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF MOVING NORTHWARD AS BGD HAS
NOW SWITCHED AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THE DRYLINE AND THE INTERSECTION BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE
SET OFF A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE AS STRONG INSTABILITY BREAKS THROUGH WHAT CAP THERE IS.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET COMBINES WITH UPPER LOW PUSHING EAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT BACK TO THE
WESTERN ZONES TO MEET UP WITH THE DYNAMICS COMING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT AHEAD OF DYNAMICS.
DRYLINE TEAMS UP WITH PACIFIC COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND DRIVES
EAST...SO WILL TAPER OFF POPS TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST AND
NORTHEAST QUICKLY AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE WITH JET STREAK AROUND
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.

MODELS MAY BE CATCHING ON TO THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WE WILL LOWER SOME TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WITH THIS IN MIND.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
MID WEEK...SO WARMER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON TRACK. WE WILL
INSERT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SEVERAL RIPPLES (SHORT WAVES) MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. SOME
CONVECTION MAY FORM ALONG THE ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE AREA.  WILL
LEAVE SATURDAY DRY FOR NOW AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AHEAD OF NEXT STRONG UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST.

WE USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST. THE ETA HAD A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE...WHILE THE AVN HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE UPPER AIR FEATURES.

A FEW NUMBERS TO PONDER:

DHT 51/71 38/64 36 730
AMA 57/74 40/66 39 750
BVR 60/79 45/65 39 660

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

GOEHRING

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-220500-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
109 PM CDT SAT APR 21 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT ACROSS ALL OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES.

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE DRYLINE WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH TONIGHT. ALL THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE OVER
THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
GUYMON OKLAHOMA TO AMARILLO TEXAS.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR LIKELY
ACTIVATION LATER THIS AFTER,NOON OR TONIGHT.

ANDRADE