Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, May 28, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
958 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2001

EXPECT RAIN THE REST OF TODAY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE AREA
NORTH OF THE FRONT WHERE H85 WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H25 JET APPEARS HIGHER. RADAR TRENDS
SUPPORT THIS WITH SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND
NORTH GEORGIA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE RAIN CHANCE IN THE SOUTH PART. EXPECT
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ASSOCIATED WITH HEATING...CONVERGENCE IN THE WEAK
LEE TROUGH AND THE WEAKENING H5 SHORTWAVE THE RUC SHOWS MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE SUPPORT APPEARS WEAK SO PLAN TO LOWER
POPS TO CHANCE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR SUPPORT A
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW OF THE TSTMS. WET-BULB
ZERO HIGHS ALSO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL. THE HEAT MAY BE HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE SATELLITE SHOWS SEVERAL MORE HOURS
OF SUN WILL OCCUR. THE MSAS LI/S WERE HIGHEST IN THIS AREA WITH
VALUES AROUND -4.

FCSTID = 5
CAE   83  63  86  61 /  40  40  10  10
AGS   85  64  86  60 /  40  40  10  10
SSC   83?  63  86  61 /  40  40  10  10
OGB   85  63  86  61 /  40  40  10  10

.CAE...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RJL