Dense Fog in Florida, May 28, 2001

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
240 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2001

CONTINUED MODEL TREND OF INCREASING MOISTURE REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH
THE WEEK...HENCE ALL OF THE CWFA WILL FEEL MORE "FLORIDA-LIKE" FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND THE PICTURE PERFECT SUNNY DRY WX FROM TAMPA
BAY N WILL COME TO AN END.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUES WITH THE BIG PICTURE
AND EVEN MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS.

SHORT TERM:
GIST OF CURRENT PACKAGE UNCHANGED.  WILL BUMP UP POPS A SMIDGE SW
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO CHANGE.  FOR TUES...HIGHEST CHC WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR COS AS LOW LVL WNW FLOW SHOULD DRIVE WCSB INLAND FAIRLY
QUICKLY.

MODIFIED ETA SOUNDINGS THIS AFTN INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SVR
WX OVER INTERIOR COS (LARGE HAIL/WIND GUSTS) WITH POCKET OF DRY AIR
ABOVE H60 AND HEALTHY MOISTURE INCREASE BELOW.  MODIFIED MAX LIS OF
-8 AND CAPE OVER 3K...ALONG WITH PROGGED H50 TEMPS AT -9...ARE
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THOSE WHICH CREATED THE LOCAL LARGE HAIL IN POLK
CO ON FRI.  ATMOSPHERE NOT PROGGED TO BE QUITE AS UNSTABLE ON TUES.

EXTENDED:
AVN SHOWS MUDDLED PATTERN THROUGH FRI.  THE BIG PICTURE SUGGEST CLIMO
TEMPS AND NEAR CLIMO PCPN...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST.  STILL NO
SIGN OF THE BERMUDA HIGH OR ANY EASTERLY WAVES TO START JUNE...
HOWEVER.  NO CHANGE TO CURRENT WORDING UNLESS MRF (DAYS 6/7) SHOWS
DRASTIC DIFFERENCES.

MARINE: STILL QUIET.  WILL SEPARATE OUT TAMPA BAY FOR PCPN MENTION...
OTHERWISE THE ONLY PCPN OVER THE WATERS WILL BE S OF ENGLEWOOD.

FIRE WX:  KINDA TRICKY TODAY.  BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST WILL THE
NATURE COAST MOISTEN UP?  CURR THINKING IS THAT LEVY CO WILL HANG
ONTO THE DRY AIR LONGEST...AND WITH HOT TEMPS OVER INTERIOR SEE
ANOTHER DURATION DAY.  REMAINDER OF NATURE COAST (INTERIOR) ON THE
FENCE SO WILL HANG ONTO WATCH.  RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
CRITERIA ELSEWHERE.

HOWEVER...ANTECEDENT DRY FUELS AND EXPECTED LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD
CAUSE PROBLEMS THIS WEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA BB 089/072/088/072 1121
FMY EB 089/073/089/073 4232 88

.TBW...RED FLAG WARNING INTERIOR LEVY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
    ...FIRE WX WATCH SUMTER (ALL)...PASCO AND HERNANDO (INTERIOR)
       THIS AFTERNOON.

GOLDSMITH

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-281500-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...

OVER INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.  ONE OR TWO MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.  OTHER STRONGER STORMS WILL
PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF TORRENTIAL
RAINS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND WIND GUSTS TO 25
MPH.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OVER THE NATURE COAST...INCLUDING HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY
COUNTIES...HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

GOLDSMITH