Damaging Wind in South Carolina, June 3, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
226 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2001

NOT AN EASY FORECAST NEXT 7 DAYS WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN BOTH
THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. IN THE SHORT TERM...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING WITH MODELS DIFFERING ON EVENTUAL POSN.
ETA KEEPS FRONT ALONG MY NORTHERN COUNTIES WHILE NGM/AVN PRESS IT
INTO S CAROLINA. THIS WL DETERMINE MUCH SINCE REMNANTS OF MCS MAY
MOVE ALONG FRONT MON MORN. SWATH OF PCPN ON MESOETA 12-15Z MON MAY
BE DISPLACED S 50-100 MILES DEPENDING ON FRONT. PLAN ON KEEPING
HIGHEST POPS N TON/MON. FRONT RETURNS N MON AFTN WITH UNSTABLE ATMOS
LEFT IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1500-2500
CAPES BOTH MON AND TUE AFTN. TRIGGERS WILL BE ANY BOUNDARIES FROM
MORNING CONVECTION AND THE AFTN SEABREEZE. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK
REASONABLE.

NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM CONCERNS FRONTAL PASSAGE MID WEEK. ETA/AVN
ARE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS AVN OR ECMWF. THIS ALSO ALLOWS A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK FOR THE MAIN SFC LOW. HI CHC POPS LOOK GOOD FOR
FROPA THURS. MRF SHOWS A RATHER CHILLY AIR MASS FOR JUNE COMING IN
FOR LATE WEEK W/ 850 MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (C).
FORTUNATELY JUNE SUNSHINE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM US TO AT
LEAST 80 GIVEN LESS THAN OVC SKIES. ENSEMBLE RUNS OF THE MRF ARE
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH HIGHS LOW-MID 80S
THU-SAT. ON A SIDE NOTE: CANADIAN MODEL SUGGESTS A VERY WET GULF SYS
MAKING LANDFALL IN FL PANHANDLE WED AND MOVING UP ATLC COASTAL PLAIN
THU. CANADIAN MAY BE SUFFERING FROM AVN-STYLE FEEDBACK AS DISCUSSED
IN PMDHMD DISCUSSION.

GIVEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...SKYWATCHERS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO SEE THE SPACE STATION 902-906 PM IN THE NW-NE SKY.

CWF: WAVEWATCH GRAPHICAL OUTPUT SHOWS QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS
UNTIL THU. ONLY BREAK UNTIL THEN IN THE SW WINDS WILL BE WITH THE
FRONT LATE TONIGHT/MON MORNING...AND THAT SHOULD ONLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN WATERS IN MY CWA. WILL ADVERTISE PSBL SMALL CRAFT ADV CONDS
IN THE EXTENDED...THU INTO FRI.

FCSTID = 9
ILM   68  90  72  90 /  20  30  10  30
LBT   68  90  70  90 /  30  40  10  30
FLO   68  93  71  91 /  30  30  10  30
MYR   70  87  72  87 /  20  30  10  30

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

TRA