Hail and Damaging Winds in Florida, June 3, 2001

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
130 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2001

CURRENT...WELL DEFINED EC/WC AND LAKE OKEE BREEZES ON VISIBLE TIME
LAPSE...WITH THE TYPICAL FINE LINE DENOTING THE ECSB ON 88D REF. FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS POPPING INVOF KFMY-KPGD IN LINE WITH THE FCST
PHILOSOPHY. CU FIELD RATHER INHIBITED OUTSIDE OF AREAS OF BOUNDARY
CONVG. WITH THE WC BOUNDARY ALREADY PUSHING INTO SUMTER CO FASTER
STEERING FLOW AND MINIMAL COVERAGE EXPECTED...WE MAY BE ABLE TO GO
WITH NIL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR TONIGHT. WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST FL COUNTIES SOUTH OF KSRQ WILL BUMP UP THE
EVENING POPS TO SCT FOR THE SOUTH INTERIOR/SE COAST AS ACTIVITY WILL
SURELY PUSH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA.

NEXT H48...LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
FEATURE RISING H50 HEIGHTS AS A 590-591DM RIDGE BUILDS OVHD...ALONG
WITH A 1-2C TEMPS RISE (TO ABOUT -8C) AS WELL AS A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
MIGRATION OF THE SFC-H85 RIDGE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO ACROSS NORTH/
CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN 29N-30N. TO THIS END...THE BIG THREE ARE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. WIND BACK TO DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY IN THE SFC TO
H50 LAYER...MEANING 1) THIS WILL ALLOW THE MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN
SUPPRESSED ACROSS SOUTH FL TO WORK ITS WAY SUCCESSIVELY NORTHWARD
2) REGIME WILL TREND TOWARD FAVORING INTERIOR COS FOR HIGHER POPS
DAY 1 AND INTERIOR/WEST FL DAY 2 (EVENTUALLY FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE BEYOND H48). ZFP WILL SHOW
THIS TREND.

EXTENDED...GRADUAL SOUTHWARD RETURN OF THE DLM RIDGE AXIS BEGINS ON
WED AS H50 TROUGH/SURFACE LOW EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
AND THEN INTENSIFY OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS. FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SLOW
AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA BY FRIDAY...HOWEVER UPSTREAM H50
RIDGE AMPLIFYING PORTENDS THE FEATURE MAKING A DECENT RUN AT THE CWA.
UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY DAYS 6-7 AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GET
BEFORE WASHING OUT AND WHETHER THIS WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF
RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE
NORTH. 02/12Z ECM AND 03/00Z MRF SEEM TO ARGUE FOR THIS. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS FOR SAT/SUN...BUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND GO A FEW
DEGS COOLER ON TEMPS.

THANKS FOR COORD TBW.

MARINE...STILL NO HIGHLIGHTS. WILL TRANSITION FROM WELL DEFINED SEA
BREEZE CIRC TO ONE OF MORE GENERAL S-SE FLOW. POPS SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE PICTURE COF-JUP LEG TOMORROW AND BOTH LEGS TUE AS REGIME TRENDS
TOWARD DIURNAL CONVECTION STAYING OVER LAND.

PRELIM CCF...
DAB BB 070/090 072/089 072 1323
MCO BB 071/092 072/091 072 1445
MLB BB 072/089 073/089 073 3323    60=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE WX...BLOTTMAN