Damaging Wind in South Carolina, August 19, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001

12Z MODEL RUN SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES FROM PVS FCST AND THINKING.
CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK A BIT LESS TNGT/MON SINCE THE STRONG S/WV
PASSED THRU LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. IT ALSO LOOKS AS THO
THE SFC CD FNT WILL MAKE IT THRU THE CWA LATER MON NIGHT AND TUE
WITH SOME DRYING AND LITTLE CHC FOR PCPN TUE AND WED.

A SERIES OF S/WVS LINED UP FROM WRN GA BACK INTO THE LOWER MISS VLY
WILL MOVE ENE AND THRU THE CWA LATER TNGT AND MON. THE AVN LOOKS TO
BE MAKING TOO MUCH OUT OF INITIAL S/WV OVER WRN GA WHERE LITTLE IS
HAPPENING. THE AVN ALSO APPEARS TO WEAK WITH S/WV FURTHER UPSTREAM
WHERE A GOOD DEAL OF WX IS OCCURRING. ETA/NGM ARE SHOWING MUCH
WEAKER DYNAMICS FOR TNGT/MON ALG WITH SMALLER POPS. BASED ON CURRENT
OBS/RADARS...WUD TEND TO AGREE MORE WITH WEAKER SOLN.

PLAN ON GOING WITH 30 POPS AREAWIDE TNGT...AND CHANCES CUD BE BETTER
LATER TNGT AS S/WV ENERGY ARRIVES. WILL KEEP SAME THINKING FOR
MON...BUT WILL CUT POPS OVER INLAND SC ZONES BACK TO 20 AS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THERE BY AFTN. MID/UPPER LVL DRYING WILL
MOVE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. EVEN THO AN ISOLD
SHRA OR TSRA CANT BE RULED OUT TUE ESP OVER GA ZONES...FEEL GUID
POPS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT FOR NOW.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WED BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.
WILL KEEP PCPN OUT ONCE AGAIN AND TEMPS SHUD BEGIN TO HEAT BACK UP.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS HOT WITH RIDGE OVHD AND WILL
GRADUALLY BRING BACK CHCS FOR PCPN.

CWF...XPC SW WIND TO PICK UP AGN TNGT ACRS SC WATERS WITH NOCTURNAL
SURGE. WL LEAVE FCST FOR SC WATERS AT 15-20 KT TNGT WITH NO CAUTION
STMT. IF WE HAVE A REPEAT OF LAST NGT...MAY HAVE TO RAISE THE
WND/SEAS FCST LTR.  WND SHOULD DECR MON NGT AND BCM WLY AS GRAD
RELAXES AHD OF CDFNT. WND SHOULD BCM VRBL LESS THAN 10 KT TUE AS FNT
MOVS OFF CST AND DSIPTS.

HIGH ASTRO TIDES AGAIN THIS EVE ARE RIGHT AT SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING CRIT. WILL HEADLINE APPROPRIATE PUBLIC AND MARINE PRODUCTS.

FCSTID = 20
CHS   74  90  72  90 /  30  30  20  10
SAV   73  90  70  91 /  30  30  20  10
CHL   76  90  75  89 /  30  30  20  10
NBC   74  90  71  90 /  30  30  20  10
RBW   72  90  68  91 /  30  20  10  10

.CHS...
GA...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVE
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS EVE
     SCZ047-050.

TJR/SR