Damaging Winds in New York, August 19, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
202 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP ALONG THE
WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO NORTH CENTRAL PA.
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES AND JUST WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN
MORE SUNSHINE AND CONSEQUENTLY HAVE HIGHER CAPES AND LOWER LI/S. WE
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE STORMS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
WHERE THERE IS GREATER HELICITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS STILL EXISTS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK...IF THE CLOUDS THIN OUT
MORE.

OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MANY CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN
TRACK JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ON MONDAY BEFORE REACHING QUEBEC
PROVINCE TUESDAY MORNING. THE STEADIER SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT ARE STILL FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE DRY SLOT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO MUCH OF OUR FA
MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC
FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY WILL STILL BE RATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY...BUT AREAS TO THE WEST SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING AS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE IN AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST.

.BUF...NONE.

TJP