Wildfire in California, August 19 to 29, 2001

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT SUN AUG 19 2001

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE KERN
COUNTY DESERT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST. WV
IMAGERY SHOWING LOTS OF ENERGY RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE MID PAC
RIDGE POISED TO FURTHER DEEP THE E PAC TROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW BETWEEN 130W AND 150W. INDIVIDUALLY THESE WAVES WILL HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE HNX CWFA OTHER THAN TO HELP CARVE OUT THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH.

EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT SW AND SOCAL ADVECTING SOME MID
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE KERN COUNTY. RADAR REFL SHOWING JUST A
FEW LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE SOCAL DESERT SO FAR TODAY. GOES DERIVED PW
NOT SHOWING ANY GOOD PUSH TOWARD KERN COUNTY AND MODELS CONTINUE TO
KEEP ANY INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. CIRCULATION
WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA ON WV IMAGERY IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT BUT
AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FURTHER DEVELOPS IT SHOULD GET SWEPT FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO KEEP ANY RELATED CONVECTION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL WAIT
AND SEE HOW THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THEN DECIDE ON ANY
POPS TONIGHT FOR THE KERN MTNS AND DESERT.

SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA TO BEGIN MONDAY AS THE
WEST COAST TROUGH FURTHER DEVELOPS. MODELS SUGGEST 500 MB HEIGHTS TO
FALL AN ADDITIONAL 60 METERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER
SHOULD RESPOND WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE
GRADS ADVECTING COOLER AND MORE HUMID AIR INLAND. VALLEY AND LOWER
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE IN HUMIDITY ON MONDAY AS MARINE
AIR BEGINS TO MODIFY THE LOW LEVELS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
BETTER HUMIDITY INCREASES ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG TROUGH THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING
A THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THIS FAR SOUTH. GRADS PROGGED TO BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

EXTENDED MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING THE COOL TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TO JUST WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES CALIFORNIA. THICKNESS
GRADIENTS SUGGEST THE FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT LIKELY TO BE DRY AND ONLY SERVE TO
REINFORCE COOLER TEMPERATURES. TROUGH FORECAST TO RETROGRADE THE END OF
THE WEEK ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BEGIN RECOVERING AND BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA.

.HNX...NONE.

LINDQUIST