Flash Flooding in Puerto Rico, November 7 to 9, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST WED NOV 07 2001

THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND REMAINS ZONAL
THROUGH 12Z ON THE 12TH OF NOV. THIS MEANS LITTLE MOVEMENT
OF THE FRONT/TROF NOW ALONG THE N COAST OF DR AND PR. THERE
IS AMPLE LIFTING OF THIS HIGHLY CHARGED MOIST BAND THROUGH
12 NOV AS VORT CENTERS PASS THROUGH W TO E TO PRODUCE EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS AND RAIN. SO THE FORECAST WILL HAVE HI SCT POPS
THROUGH THE WHOLE PACKAGE. I DO NOT SEE ANY REAL DRYING TAKING
PLACE. THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTION SO TSTMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 08/02Z. IT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED.
I WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE HEAVY SURF ADVISORY OR THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MAY HAVE TO BE
ISSUED BEFORE THE HIGH TIDE AT 1:35 AM ALTHOUGH I FEEL THAT
IT MAY NOT BE NEEDED. THE HEAVY SURF ADVISORY WILL SERVE
ITS PURPOSE FOR NOW.

PLEASE REFER TO ZFP AND CWF FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

EQUIPMENT: NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

.SJU...
.PR...HSA AND CFA FOR NORTH...NORTHWEST AND WEST FACING COASTS OF
      PRZ001-002-005-008-010>013. SCA AMZ710-720-750 AND ALL
      PASSAGES OF AMZ730 AND 740. FFA ZONES 1, 2, 5, AND 8 TIL
      08/02Z.
.VI...HSA AND CFA NORTH AND NORTHWEST FACING COASTS OF VIZ001-002.
      SCA AMZ710-720 AND ALL PASSAGES OF AMZ70.

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WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS (IN ENGLISH OR SPANISH)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
...DOPPLER RADAR DATA...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU (ALL LOWER CASE).