High Wind in Maine, November 7, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
310 AM EST WED NOV 7 2001

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL PROVIDE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT CREATING CLEAR SKIES AND
COLD TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE SNOW OR RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND RAIN FOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...
06Z ANALYSIS PLACES 983MB LOW SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH JAMES BAY SOUTHWARD. SAT IMG INDICATES LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT RAIN HUGGING THE MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD. WILL LEAN TOWARDS A WARMER ETA/GEM SOLUTION ON NEXT
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. GEM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR 3 DAYS IN MOVING
SURFACE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ETA HAS SHOWN THE SAME TRACK FOR
THE LAST 2 RUNS. AVN HAS SLOWLY BEEN MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD WITH EACH
RUN AND RIGHT NOW HAS IT THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY BUT STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MARITIMES WILL STILL PROVIDE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA. COLD FRONT TO
OUR WEST WILL BE ABSORBED BY NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND MARITIMES LOW TODAY BUT
WILL BRING IN VERY DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PARTLY SKIES ACROSS THE
THE NORTH TODAY BUT DOWN GLIDE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST. AS
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISHED ALLOWING
FOR MAX RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 20 IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH UPPER TEENS IN THE NORMALLY COLDER AREAS...WITH
MID 20S DOWNEAST.

RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH PREFERRED ETA/GEM
SOLUTION...EXPECT SYSTEM TO PRODUCE RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT OVER OUR CWA WITH
POSSIBLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS. BUT COLD AVN TRACK
STILL HAS ME A LITTLE CONCERN SO WILL KEEP OPTIONS OPEN AND GO WITH RAIN OR
SNOW FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS. HOPEFULLY NEXT RUN WILL GIVE BETTER INDICATION
OF TRACK. IF TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH PER AVN...ACCUMULATING SNOW COULD FALL
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE. EXPECT SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDS AND THEN CLEARING SKIES
DOWNEAST BUT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.EXTENDED...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. SFC LOW TRACKS FROM JAMES BAY INTO NORTHERN
MAINE SO MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LIMITED AND ONLY EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME.

.COASTAL WATERS...WILL LOWER GALE WARNING TO A STRONG SCA AS WINDS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW GALE LEVELS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT
EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA LATE.

.CAR...SCA.

FOSTER