Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, July 16, 2001

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2001

.SHORT TERM...
LONG WV PAT FCST TO CONT WITH LONG WV RIDGE OVR THE PLNS AND TROFS
NR THE CSTS. IN THE SHORT TERM UPR AIR PAT ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH A TROF ON THE W CST AND A RIDGE OVR THE PLNS. KMVX
88D SHOWING PRECIP REMAINING ACRS FAR NRN COUNTIES WITH CIRC CNTR.
CNTR CONTS TO MOV NE. VIS STLT LOOP HAS CU FIELD W OF THE RED RVR
WITH A FEW SHRA OVR NW ZONES. WL INCLUDE SCT EVE SHRA OVR NRN
COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WV OVR THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WL MOV
ACRS THE NRN PLNS TNGT. AN UPR LVL JET WL MOV INTO NEB OVNGT WITH
SOME COLD AIR SUPPORT ON THE N SIDE. 850 THETA-E RIDGE OVR ERN SD TO
MOV NE TNGT. MESO ANLYS HAS BEST INSTABILITIES ACRS SD AND FARTHER S
AND SO WL THE THE BEST CHC OF TSRA. HOWEVER WL PLACE LOW POPS IN SRN
COUNTIES OVNGT. ALSO WL INCUDE SOME FOG TWRD MORN WITH HI DWPNTS AND
LGT WNDS. WATER VAPOR HAS ANOTHER UPR LVL WV OVR NV. TIMING OF WVS
INTO THE NRN PLNS WL REMAIN A PROBLEM AND WL KEEP CHC TSRA IN FCST.

.EXTENDED...STATUS QUO IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE GREAT LAKES KEEPS THE
FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL THE GREATEST CHALLENGE
IN TIMING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT ANY TIME THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL WORD
AS MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME THUNDER TO TRY AND GIVE THE
PERCEPTION THAT IT WILL NOT BE A  TOTAL WASHOUT. TEMPERATURES RIGHT
ABOUT NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.FGF...NONE.

HOPPES/BRAZZELL