Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, July 16, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
211 PM CDT MON JUL 16 2001

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY.

NO SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION DIFFERENCES FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS BETWEEN THE AVN...ETA AND NGM.  HOWEVER...THE NGM INITIALIZED
TOO HIGH ON 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH WEST COAST TROUGH WHEN COMPARED TO
THE AVN AND ETA.  WILL USE AN AVN/ETA BLEND FOR THIS FORECAST.

SHORT WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CWA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO EASTERN FA DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...CWA WILL BE UNDER SUBSIDENT REGION OF UPPER JET.  SURFACE
TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN CWA AS WELL BUT FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY WEAK.  OPERATIONAL ETA INDICATES NO PRECIP
TONIGHT BUT THE ETA-KF DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM HOLT TO
CUSTER COUNTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  AT THIS POINT WILL WAIT UNTIL
LAST MINUTE BEFORE DECIDING ON CONVECTIVE CHANCES TONIGHT FOR
EASTERN FA.  TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LOOK
REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO PUSH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA SO WILL KEEP
ENTIRE FA DRY.  WITH DRY AIR AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK LIKELY WITH 95 TO 100 EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT
NORTHEAST CORNER OF CWA.  LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S WEST TO
UPPER 60S EAST LOOK GOOD TUESDAY NIGHT.

AVN AND ETA BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH HANDLING OF UPPER
WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN ACROSS BAJA REGION.  AVN KEEPS THIS FEATURE
FAIRLY STRONG ALLOWING SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN ENOUGH TO BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INTO AREA.  ETA ON THE OTHER HAND SHEARS THIS FEATURE
OUT LEAVING SURFACE LOW WEAK AND IN THE PROCESS KEEPING DEEPER
MOISTURE AWAY FROM FA.  BELIEVE AVN IS TOO STRONG WITH THIS
FEATURE...GIVEN LIKELY SHEARING THE SHORT WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER OVER
NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  WILL KEEP ALL OF FA DRY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO TUESDAY.

EXTENDED...DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS THROUGH
FRIDAY BUT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.  BELIEVE MRF IS BREAKING RIDGE DOWN TOO MUCH OVER THE
WEEKEND VERSUS THE ECMWF.  ECMWF LOOKS MUCH CLOSER TO THE MRF
ENSEMBLE MEANS SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THIS MODEL FOR THE
EXTENDED.  FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED LOOKS HOT AND DRY WITH A POSSIBLE
BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.  WILL
MENTION PRECIP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LBF...NONE.

AWJ

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-162045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1047 AM CDT MON JUL 16 2001

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.  ELSEWHERE WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE.  A SURFACE DRYLINE
WILL MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 AND ACT AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER WIND FIELDS ARE WEAK
AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING SUGGESTS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR.  IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND
TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 INDICATE A FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AROUND SUNSET.

CDC