Damaging Wind in North Carolina, July 3, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
339 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2001

ONGOING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION (MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA)...ALONG A SURFACE-BASED CONVERGENCE AXIS WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY...IS LARGELY DIURNALLY BASED AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. AND...WILL MENTION ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

MEANWHILE...A STRONG MID AND UPPER LVL S/W WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT FROM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND MAINTAIN A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX AS IT MOVES INTO MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MESO-ETA HANDLING THIS WEATHER
SCENARIO BEST...AND WILL ADVERTISE A LIKELY POP IN THE NORTH/
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AFTER
04/12Z...EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY DECAY...AND WILL ADVERTISE
SKIES AS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY
IN THIS REGION...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A 50 POP.

THE PASSAGE OF THE H5 S/W LOOKS TO CIRCULATE DRIER MID AND UPPER
LVL AIR...AND WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE THIRD PERIOD. STILL...
CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ADVECT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION.

THURSDAY...LOOKS TO BE THE BEST SPATIAL COVERAGE FOR PRECIPITATION
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT LOOKS TO GET INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL FILTER
IN...AND LOOKS TO SHUT OFF POP/S FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A BLEND WAS USED WHERE MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WERE NOTED.

FCSTID = 4
CHA   72  88  70  87 /  50  50  30  50
TYS   71  87  69  84 /  50  50  30  50
TRI   68  84  66  82 /  60  60  30  50
OQT   70  87  68  84 /  50  50  30  50

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DM