Damaging Wind in California, July 3, 2001

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT TUE JUL 3 2001

                             ...SYNOPSIS...
THE MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND HUMID WEATHER THIS WEEK ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REACH THE COASTAL AND INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL.

                             ...DISCUSSION...

THE MONSOON SEASON HAS BEGUN. SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WHERE WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED
LIGHTNING BUT NOT MUCH WIND. SEVERAL OF THE STRONGEST CELLS IN THE
SOCAL MTNS PRODUCED AROUND A 1/4 INCH OF RAIN THROUGH 2 PM. THE
PRECIP WAS MOVING EAST AND A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COASTAL
AND INLAND VALLEYS...BUT THE LOW LEVELS ARE SO DRY THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR A GRADUAL
MOISTENING OF THE LOW LAYERS. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WEAK EASTERLY WAVES WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY...SOME WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY SPILL INTO THE COASTAL AND INLAND SECTIONS THIS WEEK AS
WELL.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE 4-CORNERS HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE TROF OFF THE COAST WILL BRING A DRYER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
SOCAL. LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR MOUNTAINS CONVECTION SATURDAY...WITH DRYER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

.SAN...NONE.

MOEDE