Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, July 3, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
430 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS: TRACK OF MINI-MCS THIS EVNG/TONITE AND
LOCATION OF REDEVELOPMENT WED AND THU.

OUTFLOW BNDRY LEFT BY LAST NITES NE/IA MCS MADE IT TO ABT THE
MO RVR THIS MRNG. REMNANTS OF BNDRY HV LIFTED SLGTLY NORTH...
XTNDG AND XTND ROUGHLY FRM LNK TO FNB TO STJ TO CDJ.  MORE PRONOUNCED
SYN SCALE SFC BNDRY XTNDS FRM HLC TO JUST NW OF LNK TO N OF DSM.
WITH SFC TEMPS RISING WELL INTO 90S AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S...LAPS IS INDICATING CAPES AOA 4000 J/KG. PRIND IS THAT
CONVECT WL REFIRE WHERE OLD OUTFLOW BNDRY AND CDFNT AND SFC FNT
INTERSECT IN SE NE/SW IA.  WL BUMP POPS TO LIKELY IN NW CORNER
OF CWA.

BYND 24HRS...SFC FNT OVR NE AND IA TDA WL SAG SWD WITH MCS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM MODELS HV BEEN TO AGGRESSIVE WITH SWD PUSH OF FNTS AS OF
LATE...SO PREFER MORE NRN PLACEMENT ALA NGM. CAP A LTL WEAKER TMRW
AS SLGTLY COOLER AIR MVS INTO FA FRM NE. XPCT SFC BASED STMS TO
REFIRE ALNG AND SOUTH OF MO RVR TMRW AFTN. ALSO MAY HV TO CONSIDER
PCPN THREAT ACRS NRN ZONES AFT 06Z THU DUE TO ELEVATED...WAA-INDUCED
NOCTURNAL CONVECT THAT MAY DEVELOP OVR IA. WL HAVE TO INTRO POPS
INTO THURS FCST TO ACCT FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. AFT THU...UPR RDGG
AND SFC RDGG SHULD DRY FA OUT FOR A SPELL. CAP STRENGTH SHULD
PRECLUDE ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU EARLY SUN...THO NERN ZONES MAY
EXPERIENCE GLANCING BLO FRM NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT BOTH FRI AND SAT
NITES. MED RNG MODELS MV POTENT VORT MAX JUST NORTH OF FA SUN INTO
MON.  WL MAINTAIN POPS ON SUN AND INCLUDE FOR MON.  THIS SHULD PUSH
SLGTLY COOLER AIR INTO FA FOR EARLY NXT WEEK.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED...WL SIDE WITH WARMER FWC VALUES THRU
THE SHORT TERM.  WL USE A BLEND OF UKMET/ECMWF/MRF 100 AND 85 DAM
GRIDDT IN THE EXTENDED.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

24

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-041100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVENING...

FORECAST: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A SMALL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TO A KANSAS CITY TO
CHILLICOTHE TO KIRKSVILLE LINE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL WEAKEN AS THEY CONTINUE SOUTHEAST TO A BUTLER TO SEDALIA LINE
BY 3 AM. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHEAST OF A PRINCETON TO MACON LINE. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ALL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO
WESTERN IOWA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WEAK WIND FIELDS AND
DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL WEAKEN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH MISSOURI AND KANSAS.
.THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX.

DB