High Wind in North Carolina, April 2, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
255 AM EDT MON APR 2 2001

LOOKS LIKE REPRIEVE FROM WET WX TO LAST ONLY A DAY BEFORE NEXT ROUND
OF ISENT LIFT BRINGS RAIN CHCS BACK FOR TUE AND OFF/ON THRU LT WEEK.
IR PICS BEFORE ECLIPSE CONTG TO SHOW DEPARTING OLD UPR SYSTEM WELL
OFF THE COAST WITH NEXT WEAK S/W SHEARING SEWD THRU KY/TN ALONG BACK
OF ERN TROF. EXPECT TO SEE SOME OF THE MID/HIGH CLDNS WITH THIS
FEATURE AFFECT SW ZONES TDY AS SUPPORT DAMPENS OUT IN MORE ZONAL
TRAJ OVER DRY SFC AIR. OTRW PRTLY/MSTLY SNY ON TRACK PER SUBSIDENCE
BUT STILL BREEZY EARLY NRN NC MTNS AS EXTENSION OF SFC RDG SLOWLY
WORKS OVRHEAD THIS AFTN. WITH EXODUS OF UPR COLD POOL PLUS MORE SUN
ESPCLY E AND DOWNSLOPE WILL SEE TEMPS GET A BOOST BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH EVEN SOME LOW 60S PSBL SE.

TNGT...MODELS GNRLY ON TRACK WITH THE AVN FASTEST/FARTHER N WITH
PRECIP AS NEXT FAST MOVG SRN S/W EJECTS EWD AND COMBOS WITH BACKING
ALOFT/SFC WARM FRONT. BASED ON PROGGED QPF OVER THE NRN NC MTNS TWD
12Z TUE WILL INTRO A LOW POP MNLY POINTS W OF THE NRV OVRNGT OTRW
BECMG CLDY OK WITH STILL SOME BLYR DRY AIR ARND.

TUE...DEEPER MOISTURE CONTG TO SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF 85H WAA AND WEAK
BNDRY APCHG FROM THE S. APRS KEY TO NWD CVRG OF PRECIP WITH TIMING
OF STRONG NRN STREAM S/W PASSING ACROSS THE MID ATLC AND HOW FAR S
THE ASSOCD DRY AIR CAN SHUNT RH PER ETA SOLN. SINCE ALRDY HAVE -RA
IN FCST MAY BUMP UP POPS TO LKLY NRN NC MTNS AND HIGH CHC ELSW SRN
TIER CLOSER TO WEAK SFC WAVE BUT LEAVE ONLY A LOW CHC NE. GIVEN
CLDNS AND -RA WILL HAVE TO UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS AS MORN ARRIVAL COULD
DVLP WEDGE EARLIER AND HOLD MOST WELL UNDER GUID.

EXTENDED...LARGE SFC HIGH TO BUILD TO THE N TUE NGT WITH LI'S
SHOWING DECENT WEDGE IN PLACE. GOOD PTNL TO SEE NRN ZONES GO OVER TO
ONLY SPOTTY -DZ TUE NGT WITH BEST -RA CHCS INTO NRN NC WED SO
MAY TWEAK POPS DOWN A BIT. TIMING OF IMPULSES A BIT TRICKY FOR LATE
WEEK ALTHO APRS BUILDING HGTS MAY FORCE BEST UVV N WITH WARMER TEMPS
IN STORE BY SAT...SO WILL ONLY ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH WED/THU FOR
NOW PER RESIDU WEDGE.

FCSTID = 10
ROA   59  39  55  40 /   0  20  40  30
LYH   58  39  57  40 /   0  10  30  20
DAN   62  40  57  41 /   0  20  50  40
BLF   48  37  49  40 /   0  30  40  30
LWB   49  37  49  40 /   0  20  40  20
BCB   54  34  50  36 /   0  30  50  30
TNB   51  36  49  39 /   0  30  60  30

.RNK...Q
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

JH