Hail in Kansas, April 2, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
333 AM CDT MON APR 2 2001

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERNS THIS MORNING.  KICT 88D AND SATELLITE SHOWING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  WOULD NOT EXPECT MORE THAT A FEW
SPRINKLES OUT OF THIS...IF ANYTHING.  LOWER LVL CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH
IN AREA OF HIGHER SFC DWPTS.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS LOW LOCATED
OVER OKLA/TEX PANHANDLE AREA WHILE 00Z H85 SHOWING MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH WORKING NWD.

FOR TODAY...SRLY FLOW TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH PUSHES INTO FCST AREA.  EXPECT DWPTS TO RISE INTO THE 50S BY
MIDDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA.  WWA WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY AS
LIFT INCREASES.  GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS LACKING INITIALLY BUT MODELS
INDICATE INSTABILITY SHOULD INCREASE DURING INORHE DAY.  WILL KEEP
POPS GOING BUT WILL RAISE SOME...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.  CLOUD
COVER WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR ON TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD STILL SEE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

SFC BOUNDARY FORECAST TO SET UP OVERNIGHT...AND PLACEMENT WILL BE
IMPORTANT FACTOR FOR ONGOING CONVECTION.  MODELS SHOWING SOME
DIFFERENCES ON THIS WITH THE AVN A BIT FURTHER NORTH.  BEST
INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.  WILL RAISE TSRA
CHANCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS SRN ZONES.  MINS TO REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHER
DWPTS EXPECTED.

THINGS GET MORE TRICKY FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  LOCATION OF
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE KEY...BUT APPEARS THAT BEST LIFT AND
MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED NEWD.  WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS FOR CENTRAL
ZONES AND HAVE MENTION FOR SERN ZONES. WARM AIR STILL IN PLACE AND
WILL GO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER TUESDAY THAN TODAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED...SOME MINOR TWEAKS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED.

FCSTID = 16
ICT   69  55  77  53 /  30  40  20  10
HUT   68  54  76  52 /  30  40  20  10
EWK   69  54  76  51 /  30  40  20  10
EQA   70  54  77  52 /  30  40  20  10
WLD   71  54  78  53 /  30  40  20  10
RSL   68  50  74  47 /  30  30  30  20
GBD   69  50  74  48 /  30  30  30  20
SLN   69  51  76  50 /  30  30  30  20
MPR   69  52  76  49 /  30  30  30  20
CFV   69  55  78  55 /  40  40  30  20
CNU   68  54  77  55 /  40  40  30  20
K88   68  54  76  54 /  40  40  30  20

.ICT...NONE.