Damaging Wind in New York, July 24, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2001

CONVECTION IS STARTING TO POP UP FROM THE EAST OF LAKE ERIE...ACROSS
THE FINGER LAKES AND TO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH. A SOLID LINE OF TCU HAS FORMED ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE AND WINDS CHANNELLED ALONG THE LENGTH
OF LAKE ERIE ARE KEEPING SKIES CLEAR OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
ERIE...EASTERN ONTARIO AND ORLEANS COUNTIES. MSAS LIFTED INDICES ARE
FROM -4 TO NEAR -6 IN THE AREA OF CURRENT CONVECTION.

THINGS WILL GET EVEN MORE BUSY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN FURTHER EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH VORT MAX
BECOMES CENTERED NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER AROUND 00Z. THE FRONT
IS LOSING DEFINITION OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO BUT AT 18Z APPEARS TO BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF GEORGIAN BAY TO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND
WILL LIKELY POP A FEW TSRA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LAKE BREEZE NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE WESTERN ZONES
THIS EVENING AND UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...THEN
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER WAVE FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
WESTERN COUNTIES. WILL AGAIN GO WITH CHANCE POPS. THE EXTENDED LOOKS
DRY AND COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES. A RETURN OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE
TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIP.

.BUF...NONE.

HIBBERT