Funnel Cloud in New Mexico, July 13, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 PM MDT FRI JUL 13 2001

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS HAS NUDGED INTO NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. GREATER AMOUNTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHTS MCC
HAS MOVED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
EAST WINDS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS. MOISTURE IS
QUITE ABUNDANT AND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND THE STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

CONVECTION IS AGAIN FIRING ACROSS THE STATE WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
OTHER ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES ACTING AS A PRIMARY FOCUS. THE AREA OF
GREATEST CONCERN IS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND AT LEAST
ONE LOW LEVEL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR RATON TO TUCUMCARI.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN MCS IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND RIDE THE BOUNDARY DOWN INTO QUAY OR CURRY COUNTY AND INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. GREATEST THREAT APPEARS TO
BE STRONG WINDS AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED PERIODS READ LIKE A BROKEN AUDIO WAVE FILE. PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANGES IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE SUBTLE AND THEREFORE NO GREAT VARIATIONS ARE
LIKELY IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

ABQ BB 069/095 067/093 066 33213
SAF BB 060/090 061/089 060 33324
TCC BB 068/092 068/091 066 33524

.ABQ...NONE.

NMZ001>021-026-132045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1000 AM MDT FRI JUL 13 2001

NORTH AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUST WINDS AND HAIL.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN STILL PRODUCE
MAJOR FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SUFFERED LARGE WILDFIRES IN YEAR
2000 OR YEAR 2001. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING RAIN TODAY
AND TONIGHT...
IN LINCOLN COUNTY...LOW.
IN LOS ALAMOS COUNTY...MODERATE.
IN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY...MODERATE.

WEATHER SYNOPSIS...SKEIS HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. MOISTURE LEFTOVER FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS TO
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...MAY BE NEED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

COUNTIES IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
REQUIRED...
UNION...      HARDING...   QUAY...        CURRY...
COLFAX...     MORA...      SAN MIGUEL...  GUADALUPE...

COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS MAY BE
REQUIRED...
NONE.

COUNTIES IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WHERE SKYWARN SPOTTERS
MAY BE REQUIRED...
NONE.

THIS OUTLOOK PRODUCT IS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES TO IDENTIFY POTENTIAL
HAZARDOUS OR LIFE THREATENING WEATHER. IT IS NOT INTENDED TO REPLACE
SPECIFIC STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS RELATED TO FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KMAF.
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO USE PRODUCT WWUS84 KEPZ.