High Wind in New Jersey, December 18, 2001

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 AM EST TUE DEC 18 2001

AM USING THE AVN AS IT HAS HANDLED THIS SYSTEM PRETTY WELL...AND
NCEP FAVORS IT SLIGHTLY WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE ON WED NIGHT.
THEREFORE MODESTLY HIGHER POPS TODAY FOR AM -RA IN THE NERN PART OF
THE FA THAN ANYPLACE ELSE. KEPT 30 TO 50 POPS FOR THIS AM WHOLE FA
AS THERE IS A LTL BIT OF BACK BUILDING ON THE LWX RADAR. ALSO KEPT
IN SOME CLOUDS AFTER -RA EXITS...SINCE H5 IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH
AFTER 18Z AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS MATCH THE HOURLY TEMPS ON THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS. ALSO HAD THE MODEST CHC OF PCPN LINGERING A LTL LONGER IN
THE FAR NW...HAVING TO DO WITH THE PATH OF THE VORT MAX. SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A NICE CAP AT H8 THERE BY 18Z SO NOTHING SERIOUS. THERE IS A
QUICK SHOT OF CAA TODAY...BUT TEMPS DONT END UP ALL THAT COLD AT H8
AND WITH A GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW DECIDED NOT TO QUALIFY THE TIMING OF
THE MAXES TODAY. IT/S ENOUGH HOPING THAT THE COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH IN TIME TO MAKE THE PRESENT TEMPS DROP TO FORECAST MAXES.

WITH AN UPPER JET MOVING OVER FA TONIGHT...COULD BE SOME CI CLOUDS
AROUND. HAVE THEREFORE GONE PARTLY CLOUDY...AND HAVE NOT CUT THE
COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE MINS. STILL MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FOR WED...THEN
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH WED NIGHT. HAVE KEPT
THE CHC POPS FROM PREV FCST EVERYWHERE BUT SRN FA...WHERE LIFT DOES
NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AND GUIDANCE POPS NOT MUCH. TEMPS WED AND
WED NIGHT FROM GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A DEPARTURE FROM CONTINUITY.

FAIRLY WINDY TODAY AS WE SHOULD MIX DOWN THE H9 WINDS...THEN
EVENTUALLY DYING OFF TONIGHT. SCA DEFINITELY WARRANTED.

.PHI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE
       AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

MPD